France, New Caledonia: Kanak he do it?
Also: the EU, Spain, Argentina, Kenya, Haiti, and the law of the sea.
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FRANCE. NEW CALEDONIA. Kanak he do it?
Nights are calmer, but Nouméa remains besieged.
Emmanuel Macron arrived in the French territory of New Caledonia Wednesday to meet local leaders. Australian and New Zealand citizens left the island Tuesday as more French security personnel arrived to assist with restoring calm.
INTELLIGENCE. The past week of violence was the worst seen in New Caledonia since the 1980s. While it has now been calmed, as then, the question of independence will likely remain unresolved. Unless deftly managed, Macron’s visit could make matters worse. The indigenous Kanaks believe, despite several referenda, their voices aren’t being heard. It doesn’t help that the seniormost New Caledonian in Macron’s cabinet is an anti-independence European.
FOR BUSINESS. Businesses have been looted, with the local chamber of commerce declaring that damage to businesses could reach €1 billion. Car dealerships have been particularly struck, with mass arson attacks. Australia and New Zealand have started evacuating citizens, after a delay receiving flight approvals from Paris. At least 270 were arrested on Tuesday, indicating a growing and coordinated operation from French security to quell disorder.
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EUROPE. Artificial timelines
The EU aims to set the benchmark on AI.
The European Council gave the go-ahead Tuesday for rules regulating artificial intelligence technology. Regulations are expected to enter into force by 2026, and have been described as ‘risk-based’ – the higher the risk, the stricter the rules.
INTELLIGENCE. Europe’s first-mover advantage potentially gives it leverage to shape the global AI operating environment. Already, there is fragmentation among major economic blocs. Chinese AI rules are about social stability and state control. Existing US rules are mostly a voluntary compliance approach. In the EU, cognitive behavioural manipulation and social scoring systems will be banned, with additional rules on copyright and transparency.
FOR BUSINESS. The rules apply to any foreign company wishing to operate in Europe and are onerous. Indeed, the European Commission will have the power to fine companies the higher of €35 million, or 7% of annual global revenues. Like the GDPR privacy rules, these rules will impact global companies. For firms dealing in ‘high-risk’ categories, such as infrastructure, justice or health, this introduces significant new compliance procedures.
SPAIN. ARGENTINA. Not the last tango
Relations sour between leaders, not countries.
Spain “permanently” recalled its ambassador to Argentina Tuesday. She had already been removed for consultations following President Javier Milei’s comments in Madrid that Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife was “corrupt”.
INTELLIGENCE. Argentina gained independence from Spain all the way back in 1816, but relations have never been smooth, and there is lingering mistrust in certain parts of Argentina. Spain is still in the top two investors in Argentina, after the US. But Sanchez openly sided with the Peronists during the 2023 Argentine election, opposing Milei. For the time being, it is the two leaders’ personal animus, not strategic fundamentals, driving the bilateral deterioration.
FOR BUSINESS. Milei senses the Spanish Socialists, to which Sanchez belongs, are facing trouble at home, and is likely positioning himself as a friend to the conservative People’s Party. For now, this spat is unlikely to affect trade or investment. Spain has 495,000 nationals in Argentina, and billions invested in enterprises. Milei has shown himself pragmatic on foreign investment, loosening his stance recently on Chinese investment despite heated rhetoric.
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KENYA. HAITI. Thin blue end of the wedge
An overdue assistance mission begins.
Kenyan police advancers arrived in Haiti on Tuesday ahead of a broader UN assistance mission to restore order on the island. Port-au-Prince’s airport opened after three months of forced closure due to out of control gang violence.
INTELLIGENCE. The long-delayed joint mission will be composed of officers drawn from The Bahamas, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belize, Benin, Chad, Jamaica and Kenya. With Kenya leading, the group reportedly includes officers previously involved in tackling al-Shabab fighters in Somalia. Yet despite their arrival and the re-opening of the airport, Haiti remains perilous. The main seaports are still closed, hindering the arrival of food and supplies.
FOR BUSINESS. The US approved a $60 million military aid package earlier in May for Haitian police and the international team. Some criticised this as ill-informed intervention. The opposing view is that an international security mission composed of such nations would have been inconceivable even 20 years ago, and they deserve support to step into the role of global policemen. Kenya’s president will meet Joe Biden this week to shore up support.
LAW OF THE SEA. Carbon copy
An international body sides with a number of small island nations.
The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea released an advisory opinion Tuesday stating that greenhouse gases absorbed by the oceans could be classified as marine pollution. Environmentalists called the news “groundbreaking”.
INTELLIGENCE. Nine small Pacific Island and Caribbean nations sought the opinion from the tribunal. It is advisory only, with no binding legal effect, but will stand as a precedent for future climate cases before international courts. China argued an advisory opinion was outside the court’s authority (it has hit back on advisory opinions before, notably regarding the South China Sea). The tribunal also said countries must go beyond Paris Agreement pledges.
FOR BUSINESS. A body of international jurisprudence is growing on states’ obligations towards the climate, which could gradually nudge behaviour. A recent decision of the European Court of Human Rights agreed Switzerland violated human rights by not doing enough on climate change. For the moment, however, states are unlikely to modify their actions based on such rulings. Other drivers, such as technology and taxes, will have a more immediate impact.