
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily global intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
FRANCE. Not tonight, Jordan
A hung parliament may only delay a far-right government.
The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition won at least 180 seats in second-round legislative polls Sunday, to the centrist Ensemble's 159 and 142 for the National Rally (RN). Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation.
INTELLIGENCE. Against all expectations, Emmanuel Macron has trounced RN, with his Ensemble even winning more seats thanks to a tactical deal with NFP. Yet the victory will be pyrrhic. There’s no clear government. Agreeing a stable coalition will be difficult. NFP contains elements, such as Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI), even more extreme than RN on Europe and Ukraine. RN can watch the chaos from afar and prepare for the next election.
FOR BUSINESS. To form a majority, either NFP will need to dissolve, with parties like the Socialists joining Ensemble and the centre-right Republicans, or Macron’s Ensemble will need to become a junior partner to Mélenchon’s left. Yet with LFI supporters celebrating their win by burning cars and looting shops, it’s hard to see this happening. Many on the right may also feel like rioting. RN received the most votes overall, even increasing its share in the second round.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Is real but not true
Hamas makes a genuine offer it knows won’t be accepted.
Hamas dropped its demand Israel end the war in exchange for a US-proposed ceasefire and hostage deal Saturday. Benjamin Netanyahu issued a list of "non-negotiable" demands, including a guarantee that Israel could resume fighting.
INTELLIGENCE. The list, given as negotiators left for meetings with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, will likely nix the deal. Hamas would have known this. After a