France: Rally 'round Le Pen
Also: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Yemen, and the Korean Peninsula.
In addition to our daily risk monitoring brief, the team behind Geopolitical Dispatch also provides tailored advice, risk audits, scenario planning, executive masterclasses and board briefings. Click here to get in touch.
FRANCE. Rally ‘round Le Pen
The party of Chirac comes to the National Rally.
The leader of the conservative Republicans, Eric Ciotti, called for an alliance Tuesday with the National Rally, leading several lawmakers to threaten to quit. Bond yields spiked on rumours Emmanuel Macron was preparing to resign.
INTELLIGENCE. The Republicans are a shadow of their former selves, with many members having already defected to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally or Macron’s Ensemble. Yet the party, a symbol of Gaulism, has a hold on the French consciousness and could bring with it many voters allergic to Le Pen but who are upset with Macron’s decision to call an election of the eve of the Olympics and at a volatile moment in the Republic’s security, economy, and society.
FOR BUSINESS. National Rally remains a strong favourite to come first in the election. While it’s unclear it will reach a majority, it will likely get there with the support of other right-wing parties, including Reconquête, of which Le Pen’s niece is a major figure, and now the Republicans. In a blow to Macron, the left has meanwhile said it will campaign alone, leaving Ensemble and its miscellaneous independent allies likely to come a distant third on present polling.
Geopolitical Strategy is the advisory firm behind Geopolitical Dispatch. Our partners are former diplomats with vast experience in international affairs. We help boards, chief executives and investors to understand geopolitical developments and their impacts with clarity and concision.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Armed and dangerous
Plans for F-16s and the Azov Brigade cause concern.
The US lifted a ban on arming Ukraine's Azov Brigade Tuesday, saying it had found no evidence of "gross violations of human rights". Ukraine's air force chief said some of its donated F-16s would be positioned in NATO countries.
INTELLIGENCE. Washington claims Azov has dropped its neo-Nazi roots. And it was likely already receiving Western weapons (like the neo-Nazi pro-Ukraine Russian Volunteer Corps, which entered Belgorod and Kursk in March using US Bradleys). But the US risks creating another “Frankenstein”, as Pakistan warned George Bush Sr when he funded the Mujahideen. As for the F-16s, Russia may now plausibly attack NATO bases if they’re used for raids on its territory.
FOR BUSINESS. The moves won’t escalate the war, but they raise the risks for unintended consequences: an attack on NATO in the case of the F-16s; the legitimation of a violent militia with extremist origins in the case of Azov. They otherwise show NATO’s limited options. Azov’s volunteers can be odious, but are younger and fitter than Ukraine’s regulars, now aged 43 on average. Ukrainian runways are unlikely to meet F-16 requirements in length or preparation.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Never-ending story
Ceasefire talk remains just that.
Hamas suggested it would accept a US-proposed peace plan with "amendments" as a UN inquiry Wednesday found both it and Israel had committed war crimes. Hezbollah fired rockets in retaliation for the death of a senior commander.
INTELLIGENCE. One of the bloodiest wars in years grinds on with few fundamental changes, but plenty of false dawns. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is wrapping up his eighth visit to Israel but his calls for a ceasefire continue to be evaded, with both sides blaming each other for bad faith. Israel is unlikely to accept a truce until it has achieved its military aims or has rescued more hostages on its own terms. Hamas is in no real position to negotiate.
FOR BUSINESS. As the war continues, Joe Biden continues to lose support among his base, who will be essential to getting out the vote and defeating Donald Trump. But Israel is not prepared to subordinate its security to US politics, particularly when it has already expended so much in blood, treasure, and reputation. Benjamin Netanyahu will likely make this point when he meets Congress in late July, if he hasn’t already ended the war through Hamas’s surrender.
Emailed each weekday at 5am Eastern (9am GMT), Geopolitical Dispatch goes beyond the news to outline the implications. With the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the strategic framing and situational awareness to stay ahead in a changing world.
YEMEN. Back on dry land
The Houthis renew their domestic campaign.
The UN demanded the release of 13 staff members in Yemen Tuesday, in addition to four more detained since 2021 and 2023. The Houthis said Monday they had broken up a US-Israeli spy network operating under the cover of NGOs.
INTELLIGENCE. Yemen’s civil war is technically in hiatus, while the Houthis, who control most Yemen’s territory with 80% of its people, focus on sinking ships in the Red Sea. But the group’s demands for recognition and full control continue. The detention of UN staff appears to be a response to fresh Western sanctions and financial pressure. The Houthis are also cracking down on alleged dissidents and families with ties to the Saudi-backed government in Aden.
FOR BUSINESS. If the Houthis continue receive arms from Iran, they’ll continue their campaign on land and sea. Unless a deal is brokered with Riyadh (still in talks with the US on a defence treaty and unlikely to rock the boat) an end to the strikes, or the repression, is improbable. In the meantime, Yemen and its waters remain a no-go zone, though this hasn’t stopped Somali refugees from using it as a transit point. Around 200 died in the attempt this week.
KOREAN PENINSULA. Kim’s game
The DPRK keeps the South on edge.
Shots were fired Tuesday as North Korean soldiers crossed the border. Kim Jong-un called Vladimir Putin an "invincible comrade" amid speculation of a visit. South Korea's opposition leader was indicted over a funds transfer to the North.
INTELLIGENCE. Kim and his regime have made a habit of low-level provocation to get what they want, but without a clear sense of objective it’s hard to discern what the latest wave of belligerence is about, other than a cry for attention. One theory is that Kim senses volatility in the South Korean electorate, which will only be exacerbated by Lee Jae-myung’s indictment that he sent $8 million to Pyongyang via a lingerie company in 2019 while a provincial governor.
FOR BUSINESS. Lee’s Democratic Party kept its majority in March’s legislative elections, helped by a sense the President’s People Power Party had overreached in its lawfare on Lee, as well as knife attack on the left-wing leader, who has long advocated a ‘Sunshine Policy’ with the north. Sunshine seems less likely for now, with both sides resuming loudspeaker propaganda and balloon flights carrying, alternately, democratic messages and human waste.