France: Très gauche
Also: Pakistan, Sudan, Libya, and Canada.
In today’s dispatch:
FRANCE. Macron rules out a left-wing government.
PAKISTAN. At least 73 are killed in a series of separatist attacks.
SUDAN. A dam burst damages supply to the government’s headquarters.
LIBYA. Khalifa Haftar orders a stop to oil production.
CANADA. Justin Trudeau appears to be losing control.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
FRANCE. Très gauche
Macron rules out a left-wing government.
Emmanuel Macron said a left-wing government would threaten "institutional stability" Monday, asking the National in Assembly to propose a new coalition with broader appeal. Members of the New Popular Front (NFP) reacted with fury.
INTELLIGENCE. The NFP is the Assembly’s largest bloc and proposed a seemingly moderate government led by career civil servant Lucie Castets. Macron could have ordered his party’s centrist legislators to support this arrangement, denying the NFP’s left-wing fringe the opportunity to pursue impeachment proceedings. Yet by hiding behind the hard-right National Rally’s pledge to oppose such a government he may end up unleashing further chaos.
FOR BUSINESS. Macron could be playing for a bigger prize – a government led by his own party – but in the wake of his disastrous snap election, this would be too clever. His coalition is more likely to swing behind a government of the left (or right) than anyone swinging behind his. A play at dividing the NFP could work tactically, but could ultimately lead to greater strategic defeat. The French economy continues to weaken, despite a short-term Olympics boost.
PAKISTAN. Balochi and chain
At least 73 are killed in a series of separatist attacks.
Balochi militants launched the most widespread assault in years Monday, attacking buses and trucks on a major highway, striking rail lines between Quetta and the rest of Pakistan, and hitting a paramilitary base in the Lasbela district.
INTELLIGENCE. The coordinated attacks heap more pressure on an unpopular government already struggling to contain a Pashtun