Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
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Free and open to interpretation

The Quad, China, India, Mercosur, Colombia, and the DRC.

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Michael Feller
Jul 02, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
Free and open to interpretation
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The Twittering Machine, Paul Klee, 1922, watercolour with gouache, pen-and-ink, and oil transfer on paper, Museum of Modern Art, New York.

The five things you need to know today:

  • INDO-PACIFIC. Rubio tries to bring the band back together.

  • CHINA. INDIA. Reincarnation makes a comeback.

  • MERCOSUR. The locus of American trade moves south.

  • COLOMBIA. The president attacks his deputy over an alleged coup plot.

  • DR CONGO. The M23 stays in control of the land and the mines.

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INDO-PACIFIC. Odd Quad

Rubio tries to bring the band back together.

Marco Rubio hosted his counterparts from Australia, India and Japan Tuesday, where they agreed to deepen cooperation on critical minerals. Donald Trump said the US might agree a trade deal with India but cast doubt on one with Japan.

INTELLIGENCE. Despite being started under Bush and elevated under Trump, the current administration has given what was once known as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue short shrift. Rubio, with the traditional instincts of a China hawk, doubtless sees the value in maintaining the US's key forum of major Asian partners, but his boss prefers to deal with them bilaterally, if not aggressively. All three are currently in his crosshairs on trade, defence, or both.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump suggested a 30-35% tariff rate for Japan Tuesday, higher than its 'Liberation Day' 24%. India, which was placed with a 26% rate on 2 April, is hoping a deal can be reached by 9 July, but GMO foods are said to be causing friction. Delhi will hope a mutually beneficial agreement is struck. It is due to host Quad leaders this year. Narendra Modi has other gripes with Trump, notably over Pakistan, but he won’t want to miss the chance to host him.

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CHINA. INDIA. Drama Lama

Reincarnation makes a comeback.

The Dalai Lama met monks in Dharamshala Wednesday and said his successor would be born outside China, ending speculation the position would end with him. Beijing’s government-appointed Panchen Lama met Xi Jinping last month.

INTELLIGENCE. Tibet's spiritual leader says he will reincarnate, if not "emanate"

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