Geneva contentions

Iran, Israel, Palestine, the EU, Ukraine, Russia, and Brazil.

On Lake Geneva: Landscape with Rhythmic Shapes, Ferdinand Hodler, 1908, oil on canvas, Barrett Collection, Dallas, Texas.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Two types of pressure campaign converge in Switzerland.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu uses the West Bank to foreclose on Gaza.

• EUROPE. Rubio appeals to unity, and his own political future.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A new front emerges on ceasefire sequencing.

• BRAZIL. An otherwise popular president is dancing on the edge.

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IRAN. Agenda neutral

Two types of pressure campaign converge in Switzerland.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived in Geneva, ahead of indirect talks with US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on Tuesday. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to reduce Iranian exports to China, Axios said.

INTELLIGENCE. The White House is intimating more threats ahead of the talks. CBS separately reported Sunday that Trump had “agreed” to Israel carrying out strikes against Iran’s missile program should diplomacy fail. Tehran, meanwhile, is selectively leaking offers of mining, energy and aerospace deals, in addition to a nuclear accord, should sanctions be lifted. These are likely designed with Trump’s negotiators in mind: a pair of dealmakers, not diplomats.

FOR BUSINESS. Iran is wielding carrots against US sticks. Normally, this would indicate where the leverage lies. Threats are the prerogative of the strong. Fear, in Trump’s recent words, is a greater “motivator” than greed. Yet many Iranian hardliners would welcome war. Anything other than a quick and costless strike would divide MAGA. As with Ukraine, Witkoff and Kushner are seen as commercially minded. Only Israel and the neocons can be seen as hawkish.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Repossession

Netanyahu uses the West Bank to foreclose on Gaza.

Israel’s cabinet approved Sunday the registration of West Bank land for development purposes, a move Ramallah called “de facto annexation”. Trump foreshadowed Board of Peace pledges worth $5 billion for Gazan aid and reconstruction.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump, who hosts the board’s first meeting since Davos Thursday,