Germany: Swipe right
Also: Ukraine, Russia, the Caucasus, Israel, Palestine, and Brazil.
In today’s dispatch:
GERMANY. Two states shift to the right, but perhaps not to the AfD's advantage.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The coming days could be the most crucial of the war.
THE CAUCASUS. Azerbaijan’s president wins his election, and his peace terms.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Nationwide protests are unlikely to nudge Netanyahu.
BRAZIL. The G20 host makes an increasingly populist turn.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
GERMANY. Swipe right
Two states shift to the right, but perhaps not to the AfD's advantage.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first in Thuringia's state election Sunday, with 32 of 88 seats, and second in Saxony, with 41 of 120. Third-placed Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht said it would not join an AfD-led coalition.
INTELLIGENCE. The centre-right Christian Democratic Union came second in Thuringia, with 21 seats, and first in Saxony, with 42. It has a clearer path to government than the AfD, which is anathema to everyone but its own voters. This would require the CDU to hold its nose with parties on the left, but to keep the AfD out of power the compromise will be acceptable. Brandenburg heads to the polls on 22 September, with a similar result anticipated to Thuringia.
FOR BUSINESS. Without an absolute majority in either state, it’s hard to see the AfD being part of government. While the far-left BSW, in particular, would appear an unlikely partner for the pro-business and establishment CDU, it’s not much stranger than Olaf Scholz’s federal coalition, which fuses libertarians and greens (albeit in an often disastrous way). Further, BSW’s positions on culture and migration (if not Ukraine) privately match those of the CDU base.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. High stakes Pokrovsk
The coming days could be the most crucial of the war.
Russian troops were within 10 kilometres of the city of Pokrovsk, UK Defence Intelligence said Sunday. Volodymyr Zelensky urged the West to lift long-range weapons restrictions as Ukraine's offensive in Kursk ground to a stalemate.
INTELLIGENCE. With the Kursk incursion running out of steam and Ukrainian troops spread thin, Pokrovsk looks set to fall in the coming