Getting to nyet
Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Libya, and the DRC.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin’s leverage over Trump is to deprive him of a deal.
SAUDI ARABIA. MBS acts to shore-up Riyadh’s regional leadership.
IRAN. Tehran plays carrot and stick on a nuclear deal.
LIBYA. Even without a unified government, the factions are in control.
CONGO. Rebels at the heart of conflict mineral claims close-in on Goma.
Get full access to all five daily briefings, weekly analyses, and private webinars. Upgrade today for the only daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. 3D chest-thumping
Putin’s leverage over Trump is to deprive him of a deal.
Donald Trump said Wednesday if Vladimir Putin didn't do a deal soon, he had no choice but to "put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia". Moscow said there was a "window of opportunity" for talks.
INTELLIGENCE. After boxing himself in on promises to quickly end the war, Trump, not Putin, is politically incentivised to come to an agreement. Russia’s economy is beginning to suffer as the war approaches its third year, but grinding gains on the frontline will be sufficient to improve Putin’s negotiating position and maintain public support. Joe Biden’s sanctions on Russia’s energy exports meanwhile have likely used up Trump’s hoped-for economic leverage.
FOR BUSINESS. If Trump can’t force Putin to accept the terms Kyiv wants, he can force Volodymyr Zelensky to meet Moscow’s demands. Trump has some capacity to boost military aid, but this won’t be popular with his base. Nor will he want to escalate matters with NATO troops or nuclear weapons. If anyone’s playing 3D chess it may be Putin, should he find a compromise like support for the annexation of Greenland for Russian annexation of eastern Ukraine.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials. Interested in exploring how our scenario planning workshops, bespoke briefings, tailored risk assessments or ongoing advisory support can help your business?
SAUDI ARABIA. Prince charm offensive
MBS works to secure Riyadh’s regional leadership.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Trump he wanted to expand trade and investment with the US by $600 billion over four years, state media said Thursday. Kingdom Holdings said it would invest in TikTok if Elon Musk bought it.
INTELLIGENCE. MBS was the first leader to speak to Trump after his inauguration and will want to ensure Saudi Arabia