Great wave
Japan, Thailand, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, and the UK.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
JAPAN. A landslide could still take the prime minister out to sea.
THAILAND. The establishment wins, without a shot fired.
IRAN. Tehran makes a bet that greed conquers fear.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Reports of a $12 trillion offer seem a bit rich.
BRITAIN. The clock ticks on Starmer, and Farage.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
JAPAN. Takaichi advantage
A landslide could still take the prime minister out to sea.
The Nikkei rose above 56,000 for the first time after Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party won 316 of 465 seats in the lower house, paving the way for major fiscal stimulus. Donald Trump wrote that it was “my honor to endorse you.”
INTELLIGENCE. With the Japan Innovation Party, the LDP now has the supermajority it needs for its spending plans. Changing the pacifist constitution is also realistic. Hints at a nuclear program can be taken seriously. Yet Takaichi’s victory highlights a dilemma beyond that between Japan’s US military alliance and Chinese trade reliance: its fiscal position. To Trump, she now has no excuses on lifting defence spending. But the bond market may have other views.
FOR BUSINESS. Beijing won’t be happy. Its attempt to bully Takaichi while she led a minority coalition has backfired. Japan has not appeared so unified around a hawkish leader since World War II. Yet the market may do what China couldn’t in constraining her ambitions. The removal of political uncertainty, and central bank hints, has reduced anticipated losses in government bonds, but selling could resume if investors think she’ll favour Trump over them.
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THAILAND. Old is Nu again
The establishment wins, without a shot fired.
Prime Minister Anutin ‘Nu’ Charnvirakul's conservative Bhumjaithai Party came a surprise first in Sunday's polls, increasing its seats from 71 to 194 of 500. The liberal People's Party, earlier seen as the favourite, lost 35 seats to 116.
INTELLIGENCE. Anutin ran a nationalist campaign bolstered by the recent border war