Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Green in judgment, cold in blood

The US, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Ukraine, Russia, the UK, and Australia.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Apr 10, 2026
∙ Paid
Cleopatra shows Octavius the bust of Caesar, Pompeo Batoni, c. 1755-1773, oil on canvas, Musée des Beaux-Arts, Dijon.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • UNITED STATES. Those closest to Trump start to distance.

  • IRAN. Tehran is now leveraging semantics.

  • ISRAEL. LEBANON. Talks could be worse than bombs for sectarianism.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A proposed Easter truce buys time for an oil deal.

  • BRITAIN. AUSTRALIA. America’s friends begin to look elsewhere.

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UNITED STATES. Let Rome in Tiber melt

Those closest to Trump start to distance.

Melania Trump gave a rare and surprise press conference Thursday, denying links to Jeffrey Epstein. Donald Trump said he didn't "know anything" about the first lady’s statement. He separately excoriated a range of right-wing influencers.

INTELLIGENCE. Mrs Trump did not take questions, though her comments have been linked to a pending book about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, another associate of Epstein’s. Her decision to speak, and call for Congress to hear sworn testimony from his victims, however, suggests she is also getting ahead of another crisis for her husband. Jaded US voters may see this as just scuttlebutt, but Beijing and Moscow may see it as a step toward a palace coup.

FOR BUSINESS. Unusual moves on consecutive days by the vice president and first lady of a personalist regime, led by an elderly and erratic patriarch bruised by war, would normally be viewed with alarm. That it’s the US should be no exception. Rising speculation around Trump’s mental health, his attacks on former allies (from Tucker Carlson to the Wall Street Journal), and even Fox’s decision to spell out each failure in Iran, transmit early signals of regime change.


IRAN. The Gulf between

Tehran is now leveraging semantics.

Tehran's attendance at talks in Islamabad were put in doubt as it and Washington accused each other of ceasefire violations and new attacks were reported at Saudi oil facilities. Tankers were turned away from the Strait of Hormuz.

INTELLIGENCE. Only a handful of ships have passed Hormuz in recent days. Iran

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