Guiding the principals

Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Japan, Cuba and Peru.

Khorasan merchants before Guide Muhammad ibn Ali al-Baqir, Kasim Ali, 1526, Petrograd manuscripts collection, National Library of Russia, St Petersburg.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• IRAN. Talks move forward, as do threats.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Grinding gains on the ground, gridlock in Geneva.

• JAPAN. Tokyo doubles down on DC as others hedge.

• CUBA. Rubio’s pressure campaign pushes Havana to the brink.

• PERU. Congress removes another leader ahead of April elections.

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IRAN. Terms of enrichment

Talks move forward, as do threats.

The US and Iran settled on “guiding principles” for a nuclear deal during talks in Geneva, Tehran said. Washington reiterated all options were on the table, with Iran expected to revert with ways to address the “gaps” in coming weeks.

INTELLIGENCE. Diplomacy and coercion are running in parallel. Tehran reportedly has two weeks to make proposals addressing core US demands. For now, Washington will continue to signal its willingness to take the hard road. That goes beyond the obvious military threat. By way of example, Scott Bessent told Congress the US engineered Iran’s dollar shortage in late 2025, squeezing the economy and precipitating January’s cycle of protests and reprisals.

FOR BUSINESS. Heavily caveated progress is to be expected. There is an equal measure of shared interest and suspicion around the table. Washington has a strong hand but could overestimate its advantage. Tehran will offer tribute and concessions. It won’t negotiate itself out of existence. Iran’s military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz (and talk of joint drills with Russia and China) are an attempt to demonstrate the US doesn’t hold all the cards.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Lines of contact

Grinding gains on the ground, gridlock in Geneva.

Peace talks resumed in Geneva, focusing on the sequencing of a ceasefire, elections and broader political agreement. On the battlefield, Ukraine reclaimed 201 square kilometres of territory, demonstrating its continued capacity to fight.

INTELLIGENCE. The number of issues left to settle has narrowed. The gap between