Half-cocked, unsure
Israel, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, the Koreas, Spain, NATO, New Zealand, and China.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. IRAN. Trump turns the war into a game show.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow makes some candid admissions.
KOREAN PENINSULA. A symbolic act of détente is scheduled for Tashkent.
SPAIN. NATO. The prime minister’s woes could endanger the alliance.
NEW ZEALAND. CHINA. Rarotonga comes between Wellington and Beijing.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. Let the chicks fight it out
Trump turns the war into a game show.
Donald Trump would decide within two weeks whether to join the Israel-Iran war, the White House said Thursday. After Iran hit a Beersheba hospital, Israel's defence minister said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist”.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite claiming there was a "substantial chance of negotiations", the decision seems more about Trump's desire to intervene when the costs are lower and avoid a MAGA schism in the meantime. But while treating the conflict like an episode of The Apprentice, or one of his trade negotiations, is smart politics, it's a dubious strategy. Iran has joined talks with European powers, and Steve Witkoff is still in touch, but Israel appears unready for a truce.
FOR BUSINESS. Benjamin Netanyahu told Hebrew television late Thursday Israel could attack Iran's Fordow nuclear facility without US air power, but it will keep pressing for Trump's involvement, particularly if regime change is the objective. As each day passes, the chances of a return to the negotiating table seem more distant. Iran has lost half its missile launchers, and Israel’s interceptors have been depleted, but no obvious off-ramps have yet been presented.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Being vulnerable
Moscow makes some candid admissions.
Russia's economy minister said the country was "on the brink” of recession Thursday. Its UK ambassador said Moscow was recruiting 50-60,000 soldiers per month, a figure that tallies with Western estimates of 35-45,000 losses per month.
INTELLIGENCE. Minister Maxim Reshetnikov's warnings were in the context of 20%
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