Have I got a deal for you
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Switzerland, Venezuela, and Haiti.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump and Tehran agree to disagree, on Friday, maybe.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin eyes manoeuvre in a war of attrition.
SWITZERLAND. Voters opt not to cap the population.
VENEZUELA. US influence compounds, as does involvement.
HAITI. Ahead of Guterres’s visit, security remains dire.
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IRAN. Extend and pretend
Trump and Tehran agree to disagree, on Friday, maybe.
Oil futures fell again after Pakistan said Iran and the US would sign an MoU to extend the ceasefire on Friday. Washington and Tehran continued to point to different versions of the deal. Israel struck Beirut, earning a rebuke from Donald Trump.
INTELLIGENCE. After he earlier claimed it’d be signed on Sunday, markets might have been more sceptical, but Trump has correctly judged that by continuing to dangle hope for a deal (without revealing what that exactly means), he can lower oil prices for another week. Tehran also appears happy to drag things out. Every additional week it holds out brings the US closer to a crisis in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, weighting any eventual deal further in Iran’s favour.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s need for a deal was again made plain when he slammed Benjamin Netanyahu for attacking Beirut Sunday (“no f**king judgment”) before reportedly offering Tehran sweeteners to not retaliate. As far as markets are concerned, an open strait is worth any diplomatic cost, but in the long term, ceding control to a Tehran with or without nuclear weapons makes mockery of the freedom of navigation rules that global markets ultimately rely on.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Wrong kind of breakthrough
Putin eyes manoeuvre in a war of attrition.
Trump spoke separately to Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky as drone and missile strikes continued on both sides, including an attack on a UNESCO-listed monastery in Kyiv. Russian troops advanced into the city of Konstantinovka.
INTELLIGENCE. The industrial hub of Konstantinovka is part of the Donetsk "fortress