Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

He said, Xi said

China, the US, the Korean Peninsula, NATO, the Netherlands, and Tanzania.

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Michael Feller
Oct 30, 2025
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In marriage, keep an eye on your own interests, and return radiant after registration, We Dezu, 1953, poster, Landsberger Collection, Amsterdam.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • CHINA. UNITED STATES. Trump and Xi see the truce differently.

  • THE KOREAN PENINSULA. The US surfaces a propulsion surprise.

  • NATO. A routine rotation puts Europe on edge.

  • THE NETHERLANDS. Voters take a hard turn from the hard right.

  • TANZANIA. Another rigged election sees another Gen Z uproar.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Disagreeing to agree

Trump and Xi see the truce differently.

Donald Trump said he would reduce fentanyl tariffs by 10% after a “12 out of 10” meeting with Xi Jinping. Trump said he would visit China in April and soybean exports would resume. China would also remove “roadblocks” to rare earths.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump said a deal would be signed “pretty soon.” Xi said little other than “disagreements are normal”. The fentanyl tariffs, which will go from 20% to 10%, on top of other duties, were already flagged for reduction. COFCO revealed soybean purchases of 180,000 tonnes Wednesday (a fraction of a normal year’s 22 million tonnes of imports out of 100 million total). Rare earths were always a red herring. For 12 out of 10, expectations must have been low.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s ebullient rhetoric may not match reality but as the trade war’s instigator, his satisfaction, feigned or not, is welcome. While things could always decline between now and April – including in response to a concurrent announcement of resumed US nuclear tests – China has shown it need only agree to vague commitments to stabilise ties. Chinese stocks are at decade highs. US stocks may rise. But this was ultimately no breakthrough.

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THE KOREAN PENINSULA. Nuclear family

The US surfaces a propulsion surprise.

Seoul Thursday released details of Lee Jae Myung’s agreements with Donald Trump, including a reduction in auto tariffs and cash investments. Trump said the US would share nuclear submarine propulsion technology with South Korea.

INTELLIGENCE. Lee upstaged Japan’s Sanae Takaichi, giving Trump a golden crown

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