Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

History lessons

Japan, China, India, Pakistan, Australia, Turkey, the Caribbean, Ecuador, and Chile.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Nov 17, 2025
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Confucius Teaching Moderation with the Tilting Vessel, Sesson Shukei, c. 16th century, hanging scroll, Museum of Japanese Art, Nara.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • JAPAN. CHINA. A new class of politicians face a familiar test.

  • INDIA. PAKISTAN. A pause in escalation may soon be over.

  • AUSTRALIA. TURKEY. Middle powers compete for tiny ones.

  • THE CARIBBEAN. The war on drugs is all tactics, no strategy.

  • ECUADOR. CHILE. Defeats for incumbents have a common cause.

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JAPAN. CHINA. Back to schooled

A new class of politicians face a familiar test.

Tokyo sent a senior envoy to calm tensions Monday after Beijing took umbrage at Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments on a hypothetical Taiwan invasion. A Chinese coast guard formation passed through the Senkakus Sunday.

INTELLIGENCE. China is testing Japan’s new government, which, institutionally, is used to rocky bilateral relations but must politically manage an untested coalition partner. Beijing warned its citizens and students not to visit Saturday, in a move seen as designed to spook Takaichi’s new allies in the libertarian Japan Innovation party, who may prize frictionless trade over strategic signalling, especially with GDP contracting for the first time in six quarters.

FOR BUSINESS. Economic figures, released Monday, fell due to US tariffs, not Chinese pressure, but the vulnerability is clear. And while silver linings may emerge – such as in 2010, when a rare earths ban from China led Japan to fund alternatives now key to Western supply chains – Takaichi may not have the political space for such far-sighted policy. Still in her honeymoon phase, she can take risks, but polls suggest voters are anyhow split on Taiwanese defence.

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INDIA. PAKISTAN. Innings break

A pause in escalation may soon be over.

Delhi arrested a Kashmir resident accused of conspiring with last week’s suicide bombing. Nine were killed in Srinagar after explosives seized as part of the probe detonated. Pakistan’s army chief warned against “those who impose war”.

INTELLIGENCE. After twin attacks in Islamabad and Delhi, which initially led to mutual

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