Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
History repeating

History repeating

Israel, Iran, Palestine, Ukraine, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Nigeria.

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Michael Feller
Jun 18, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
History repeating
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Xerxes at the Hellespont, Jean-Adrien Guignet, c. 1846, oil on canvas, Musée Rolin, Autun, Burgundy.

The five things you need to know today:

  • ISRAEL. IRAN. The US gets closer to starting another Gulf War.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu escalates the assault on Gaza.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin’s cards come up Trumps.

  • INDIA. PAKISTAN. Having skipped talks with Modi, Trump welcomes Munir.

  • THE SAHEL. Russia’s move into gold production has a monetary dimension.

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ISRAEL. IRAN. Tale as old as time

The US gets closer to starting another Gulf War.

Donald Trump called for Iran's "unconditional surrender" late Tuesday as the US moved more fighter jets into the region. Trump contradicted his intelligence chief Tuesday on whether Iran had been building a nuclear weapon, as Israel claims.

INTELLIGENCE. Despite MAGA opposition, Trump is crab-walking towards direct involvement in Iran. The regime is unlikely to easily surrender. For it to survive, it will need to fight. The form of US involvement, whether by lending B-52 bombers or running attacks itself, is less important than the outcome, which could range between Iran’s collapse (and ensuing chaos) or a protracted conflict endangering US positions in the Gulf. Wars are easier to start than end.

FOR BUSINESS. Some will see US involvement as vital for credibility. Others will say Trump is being compromised. Whatever the reason, the US has form for fighting wars it shouldn't. Iran may be a Syria, quick to collapse and rebuild, but it may be an Iraq. If the second, the trouble will be less about the regime change than in dealing with the aftermath. Iran's 90 million are ethnically diverse. It is large and rugged. It's a rogue state, but there are worse things than that.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. While nobody's watching

Netanyahu escalates the assault on Gaza.

Tanks firing into a crowd killed 59 in Khan Younis, Gaza's health ministry said Tuesday. The Israel Defense Forces said it would review the incident. The EU defended its response on Gaza, saying the bloc had "not been silent" on the crisis.

INTELLIGENCE. Many claim Iran is a diversion from Gaza. That’s inaccurate, but the

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