Hit me Bibi one more time
Iran, the US, Mexico, Canada, Cuba, and Colombia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The US and Israel are lured further into the trap.
UNITED STATES. Trump hangs tough on a rate cut.
MEXICO. CANADA. As the World Cup opens, the trade games begin.
CUBA. Washington seems unsure of its objectives.
COLOMBIA. Second-round interference raises tensions.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.
IRAN. Self-defence the worst offence
The US and Israel are lured further into the trap.
Tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran continued for a second day as Israel killed 17 in Lebanon. Tehran rejected Donald Trump’s claims he had “secretly” helped 100 million barrels of oil exit Hormuz, saying the strait was closed.
INTELLIGENCE. Industry data suggests transfers remain at a fraction of normal levels, even if some ships are getting through with assistance from the US or Iran. For all the bombast, Trump’s quagmire is no closer to a resolution and is probably getting worse. Militarily unwilling to escalate beyond “self-defence” strikes and politically unable to accept Iran’s terms, he risks simply dragging out the war to a point where oil prices, due to stockpile attrition, get even higher.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran will judge it can last longer in a blockade than Trump, who must eventually answer the market and the US voter. Likewise, Netanyahu, who faces elections this year, can’t hold out indefinitely, despite higher public support. With a diplomatic offramp distant – Pakistan has moved to the background; China appears to be in no hurry – Trump may be forced to escalate. Nuclear-capable B-52 bombers have passed Saudi Arabia with transponders on.
UNITED STATES. Inflation in the morning
Trump hangs tough on a rate cut.
Pundits slammed Trump for saying “I love the inflation” after CPI growth hit 4.2% in May, a three-year high. Gold hit a six-month low amid growing anticipation for a Fed hike. The Bank of Japan’s governor was hospitalised for a liver operation.
INTELLIGENCE. The Fed's new chair, Kevin Warsh, is unlikely to hike rates when the