Hope over experience
Iran, Yemen, the US, Denmark, Ukraine, and Russia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Washington claims progress as things fall apart.
YEMEN. The Red Sea wildcard is threatened again.
UNITED STATES. Personal blows to Trump appear to land.
DENMARK. The prime minister begins her third term in office.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv gets bombed as Saint Petersburg gets delegates.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.
IRAN. This is fine
Washington claims progress as things fall apart.
Donald Trump said he had brokered a truce between Israel and Hezbollah “hopefully” “for eternity” and talks were ongoing with Iran “at a rapid pace”. Hezbollah and Iran denied the claims as strikes in the Gulf and Southern Lebanon continued.
INTELLIGENCE. Declaring peace or victory, despite the evidence, isn’t new for Trump. Yet the bluster is a depreciating asset. Despite using all his arsenal to stem an 8% jump in oil prices (Axios, coordinated short-selling, and now, it seems, Lebanon’s in Washington), crude’s fall in Asian trade has been marginal. Israel remains locked into escalation. The US is no closer to its goals on Hormuz (let alone Iran’s nuclear program), and the Gulf monarchies remain divided.
FOR BUSINESS. With warnings from Chevron and others that the US will soon face shortages, many believe Trump has no choice but to capitulate and let Iran reopen the Strait on its own terms. But similar reasoning held that Putin’s war against Ukraine would be called off in early 2022 due to its manifest failure. The sunk cost fallacy is an iron law of war. Things can, and often will, get worse. If there’s a lobby for war, ending it is beyond a matter of salesmanship.
YEMEN. Wake up, Bab
The Red Sea wildcard is threatened again.
Iran threatened to block the Bab El Mandeb Strait as its next step in operations. Yemen’s Houthis said they were ready to join Hezbollah in the fight against Israel. Prominent Tigrayans called for secession as Ethiopia held national elections.
INTELLIGENCE. Ethiopia’s vote, which excludes the restive Tigray region, could