Hormuz of a dilemma
Iran, Russia, Venezuela, the US, and Taiwan.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. In a strategic disaster, the only way is through.
RUSSIA. The Kremlin’s fortunes turn.
VENEZUELA. Drugs, guns, money, oil, and the USA.
UNITED STATES. Less foreign trade, fewer foreign friends.
TAIWAN. A moment of truth on weapons sales.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Lie of the landing
In a strategic disaster, the only way is through.
Expectations for an amphibious landing on Iran's coastline rose as Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and Donald Trump said the world would "watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today."
INTELLIGENCE. The US Navy says it is unable to break Iran’s blockade, despite Trump’s calls for mariners to “show some guts” and claims of “unlimited ammunition”. Tehran may be glad he seems to believe this. While an amphibious assault could unblock the Strait (per multiple wargaming scenarios), it would also drag the US into a larger ground war it would struggle to contain, further bolstering any political mileage Iran can gain from its conventional defeat.
FOR BUSINESS. As in Afghanistan, the enemy is no match. But that doesn’t mean the US will win. With little left to lose, Iran just needs to sustain the pain, and its asymmetric advantages will endure an initial landing. Whether US troops go to Kharg or Hormuz, almost everything needs to go right. For Iran, only one thing needs to go wrong. Oil prices are back at $100. A refuelling jet has been shot down. “Years” of munitions have reportedly been expended.
RUSSIA. Putin it together
The Kremlin's fortunes turn.
The US waived sanctions on Russian oil at sea for after Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev met officials in Florida. Steve Witkoff denied Russia had given Iran assistance in targeting US radars. Vladimir Putin vowed “unwavering support” to Tehran.
INTELLIGENCE. The waiver is for 30 days, but could be extended, or expanded, if