Hostage’s dilemma

Israel, Palestine, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, the EU, the US, and Thailand.

The Flight of the Prisoners, James Tissot, c. 1900, gouache on board, Jewish Museum, New York.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu offers a lose-lose deal.

• IRAN. The US faces a reckoning on Tehran’s nuclear program.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump extends his final-ish offer.

• EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Brussels scores a pharmaceutical remission.

• THAILAND. Thaksin is cleared, but Paetongtarn remains on trial.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

Upgrade today for access to all five daily briefings, five days a week, as relied on by leaders and investors across 150 countries. Upgrade to GD Pro for even more.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. All stick

Netanyahu offers a lose-lose deal.

Benjamin Netanyahu said hostage negotiations would recommence Thursday, in his first acknowledgment of a ceasefire proposal put forward by Egypt and Qatar. Netanyahu told Australian television he was “going to” take Gaza City “anyway”.

INTELLIGENCE. The interview's airing may have been overtaken by events, but it seems as if Netanyahu is both committing to talk, and to conquer. Such a lose-lose offer may put pressure on Hamas but will unlikely yield a positive result for the hostages, let alone Gazan civilians. This will ultimately be Israel's loss too, including in the court of public opinion. Much of the interview was spent attacking Australia's prime minister, whom Netanyahu calls “weak.”

FOR BUSINESS. As the war grinds on, Israel is losing friends. Beyond Australia, some of whose diplomats have since been denied visas, Israel is at loggerheads with France and the UK. Ties with Washington and Berlin remain mostly cordial (Donald Trump this week called Netanyahu a "war hero"), but recent surveys suggest most Americans and Germans now support Palestinian statehood. This isn’t helped by Israel’s approval of a major West Bank settlement.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Learn more about how we can help you to map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.

IRAN. Snapback decisions

The US faces a reckoning on Tehran’s nuclear program.

Iran’s foreign minister will speak with his French, British and German counterparts today, state media said, after the E3 powers threatened "snapback" sanctions. The US and UN would hold crisis talks on Iran's enrichment, Bloomberg said.

INTELLIGENCE. Since Iran's 12-day war with Israel in June, there has been no