Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. The bond market augurs regime change.
IRAN. Trump wants to talk, but Tehran won’t listen.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Crunch time arrives for sanctions.
SWEDEN. Voters take a chance on the moderates.
INDONESIA. Prabowo tries to right the ship of state.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses, and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.
UNITED STATES. The 5% club
The bond market augurs regime change.
US 10-year yields hit a 19-year high of 5.02% Tuesday as markets reacted to rising oil prices, falling AI stocks, and rate-hike expectations. Donald Trump likened worries about AI to the “global warming scam” and “Russia, Russia, Russia”.
INTELLIGENCE. After failing to impress voters with promises of a $5,000 midterms “dividend”, things are looking harder for the Republican Party in November. And amid cynicism over the AI industry’s seeming about-face on regulation, markets look worried as well. Trump will hope the Fed doesn’t hike tomorrow, but if it holds, the outcry from bondholders could be even worse, pushing longer-dated yields (and real-world borrowing costs) even higher.
FOR BUSINESS. Markets are looking for a monetary regime change (from dovish to hawkish) if not a political one, but all transitions are messy, especially if resisted by those in charge. Trump and his Treasury Secretary, Scott “the House” Bessent, continue to say the economy is golden, at the foothills of an AI boom, but sticky inflation and chronic unprofitability among the modelmakers suggest otherwise. The saving grace is that few big markets are much better.
IRAN. It takes two to TACO
Trump wants to talk, but Tehran won’t listen.
Oil extended its rise as Hormuz shipping transits fell and the Houthis continued to advance across Yemen. Trump said the “failing nation of Iran” wanted a deal, “the concept of which we are open to.” Tehran denied it had made any outreach.
INTELLIGENCE. In a string of social media messages, mostly about AI, but also