Icy reception

Ukraine, Russia, the Caucasus, China, the US, Australia, New Zealand, and Thailand.

The Alaska Ice, Rockwell Kent, 1919, oil on panel, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. In defending Kyiv, Europe risks upsetting Trump.

• THE CAUCASUS. A peace deal unravels before the ink is dry.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. A tussle over tech as deadlines approach.

• AUSTRALIA. NEW ZEALAND. Washington’s southern anchor begins to drift.

• THAILAND. Fresh trouble on the border, and in the government.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Unalaska

In defending Kyiv, Europe risks upsetting Trump.

The EU and NATO backed calls for Volodymyr Zelensky to join talks between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday. The White House said it was "open" to trilateral meeting but was planning a bilateral one at Moscow’s request.

INTELLIGENCE. Zelensky's attendance has been almost universally demanded by Europe, which has overtaken the US as Ukraine's top military backer. But Putin would likely use this as an excuse to cancel talks and, if so, there's a risk Trump will blame Kyiv, not Moscow. Worse, he could blame Brussels, which is convening EU foreign ministers today to discuss next steps. JD Vance, on a working holiday in Britain, is reportedly on instruction to talk them down.

FOR BUSINESS. Vance told media Sunday the conflict should be settled on current battle lines and "it's not going to make anybody super happy." Except Trump. And if Trump isn't happy, the risk of secondary tariffs will rise again. So far, only India has been threatened, with an additional 25% duty to take effect on 28 August. Though down from pre-war highs, Europe still buys Russian oil and gas. The threat of more US tariffs would quickly change EU calculations.

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THE CAUCASUS. TRIPP to the woodshed

A peace deal unravels before the ink is dry.

Iran said Saturday it would prevent a proposed US-run trade corridor along its border with Armenia, part of a peace deal agreed between Baku and Yerevan, brokered by Donald Trump. Armenian expatriates said the deal "rewarded genocide".

INTELLIGENCE. Despite the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity's