Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump and Netanyahu deny plans for a pre-election strike.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Washington pushes Kyiv to TACO.
UNITED STATES. A hot CPI meets a hot CPU.
CANADA. GREENLAND. Take US assertions seriously, not literally.
ARGENTINA. BRITAIN. The Falklands saga gets messier.
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YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. That sinking feeling
Trump and Netanyahu deny plans for a pre-election strike.
The US had drawn up plans to use the “mother of all bombs”, CNN said. The IRGC said an attack was “imminent”. Benjamin Netanyahu said pre-election escalation was “not convenient” but may be necessary. Two ships sank in Hormuz.
INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump denies he wants a pre-midterm strike, but a narrative is forming that he (and Israel) may have no choice. Adding that those who leak plans “should be shot”, Trump has indicated something might be up. The MOAB, or GBU-43, has only been used once. It could hypothetically be used against Iranian nuclear facilities, but it lacks the bunker-busting design of the GBU-57, used in June last year on the Fordow and Natanz complexes.
FOR BUSINESS. Both Trump and Netanyahu are under enormous political pressure, with their failure to finish the job on Iran, or materially improve national security, central to their pre-election woes. Still, even if a major strike were to create a rally-round-the-flag – or justify a state of emergency that could delay or complicate the polls – the economic impact would ricochet. Oil remains stubbornly high as security worsens in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Hard sell, soft shell
Washington pushes Kyiv to TACO.
Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv was “done” with the US’s block on refinery attacks after earlier saying he had been betrayed by Washington. The US was planning to lift sanctions on Russian tankers and potentially unfreeze assets, Reuters said.
INTELLIGENCE. In interviews with the Financial Times and podcaster Piers Morgan,