Improvise, adapt, overcome
Iran, Japan, China, NATO, Ukraine, Russia, and Cuba.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. A search for an off-ramp could bring bayonets.
JAPAN. CHINA. Takaichi’s visit to Washington gets trickier.
NATO. European partners try hard not to smirk.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. More of Kyiv’s allies just want the oil.
CUBA. A string of disasters will encourage Trump.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. The few, the proud
A search for an off-ramp could bring bayonets.
JD Vance defended Donald Trump’s handling of Iran, saying he trusted the president “to make sure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated”. Trump refused a question on Marines being sent to the Gulf, calling the reporter “obnoxious”.
INTELLIGENCE. Around 5,000 Marines and special forces are reportedly on their way from Japan, including the 31st Expeditionary Unit, whose small-boat capabilities are unique for the sorts of operations that could unplug the Strait of Hormuz and allow him to decisively declare victory. Yet by sending in ground troops, and in the absence of allied support, Trump will cross a Rubicon, including for figures like Vance, a former Marine, who have decried such plans.
FOR BUSINESS. While he proudly claims to be winning, Trump may judge there’s no choice but to finish the job with an amphibious assault. Whether the 31st lands on Hormuz or Kharg, it’s a high-risk endeavour and one that the IRGC seems to have consistently encouraged. If it doesn’t work, the off-ramp will need to be political, and on Iran’s terms (or those of China). Here, Vance may need to reappear, as this could otherwise crush the Republican Party’s future.
JAPAN. CHINA. Strait and narrow
Takaichi’s visit to Washington gets trickier.
Sanae Takaichi reiterated there were no plans to send naval ships to Iran after Marco Rubio phoned her foreign minister about a Hormuz coalition. Trump confirmed a summit with Xi would be delayed by "a month or so" due to the war in Iran.
INTELLIGENCE. Takaichi is due to meet Trump on Thursday. Her visit was timed to