In from the cold

Ukraine, Russia, Iran, India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan.

“Now it’s just a question of whose kind of peace.” Herb Block, Washington Post, 18 January 1960, Library of Congress, Washington DC.

The five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump gets a goodwill gesture from the Kremlin.

• IRAN. Trump reiterates his willingness to do a deal.

• INDIA. Washington and Delhi’s interests are increasingly misaligned.

• BANGLADESH. Time runs out for the interim government.

• AFGHANISTAN. An irrigation scheme could complicate regional rapprochement.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Give peace a chancer

Trump gets a goodwill gesture from the Kremlin.

A US schoolteacher was released Tuesday after a visit to Moscow by White House envoy Steve Witkoff. Kyiv could exchange territory seized in Kursk, Volodymyr Zelensky said. Donald Trump said he’d send Scott Bessent to Ukraine.

INTELLIGENCE. Bessent will travel to talk minerals, not arms. Matters of war and peace are being discussed directly with Moscow. While the Kremlin is playing coy with Trump’s reported offer of an armistice along the current line of contact, the release of teacher Marc Fogel, detained since 2021, is a gesture that Russia wants to engage (or at least string the US along). The release of another American, Ksenia Karelina, detained since 2024, is allegedly on the cards.

FOR BUSINESS. Hostage diplomacy is as old as diplomacy itself but is becoming more common in a media-saturated age. And where the detaining country sees a counterpart’s need for announcements or signs of progress, the stakes are only raised. The US has less such leverage on Russia and its customary tool – economic sanctions – have largely run their course. Should Trump wish to put more pressure on Putin he will need to take a different, military, course.

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IRAN. Anniversary gift

Trump reiterates his willingness to do a deal.

Tehran loosened restrictions on foreign cars and iPhones as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pardoned journalists who reported the death of an unveiled woman, sparking massive protests in 2022. Donald Trump said “I would love to make a deal”.

INTELLIGENCE. On Tuesday’s anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Tehran made its customary attempts at