India, China: Moving mountains
Also: Russia, Turkey, Cuba, and Sudan.
In today’s dispatch:
INDIA. CHINA. A pact on border disengagement opens a path to normalisation.
RUSSIA. Not all emerging powers are keen to attend Putin’s meeting.
TURKEY. Erdogan faces choices on his past and future.
CUBA. Multiple power cuts put the regime in a rum situation.
SUDAN. Things turn for the worse for the Rapid Support Forces.
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INDIA. CHINA. Moving mountains
A pact on border disengagement opens a path to normalisation.
Delhi and Beijing had reached an agreement on border patrols, ending a four-year standoff, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar said Monday. Narendra Modi was expected to meet Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit to welcome the deal.
INTELLIGENCE. Xi and Modi are in Russia for the next few days, giving ample opportunity for a photo-op. This is bad for the US. First, while peace on the Himalayan frontier is undoubtedly good, the announcement’s timing, ahead of the BRICS, gives implicit endorsement to Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic sway, even if he wasn’t involved. Second, reduced tensions on the border reduces a key impetus for India’s wavering ties to the West, including via the Quad.
FOR BUSINESS. India’s other gripe with China is its trade imbalance. A resolution on the de facto border, the Line of Actual Control, will let harder economic issues be tackled. The BRICS could help. A proposed payments architecture would preference countries in the club, like India. India mainly sells China substitutable commodities, like rice, iron ore and seafood. The BRICS also seeks to facilitate tech standards, something where India can offer more value-add.
RUSSIA. BRICbats
Not all emerging powers are keen to attend Putin’s meeting.
Leaders began arriving for the 16th BRICS summit in Russia's Kazan Tuesday. Brazil's Lula da Silva cancelled due to a minor brain haemorrhage. Saudi Arabia had earlier confirmed it would not attend. Kazakhstan said it would also not go.
INTELLIGENCE. Many want to join the BRICS, from Malaysia to the Taliban, but it’s those uninterested – the Saudis and the Kazakhs – who’ve caught Vladimir Putin’s ire. Things are tense with Riyadh over oil and Tehran. With Astana, there’s a sense a reliable Russian ally is belatedly trying to hedge its bets (Russia banned Kazakh fruit and vegetables exports last week on “safety” concerns). The BRICS is giving Putin a diplomatic platform, but it’s not yet complete.
FOR BUSINESS. With its pariah status in the West and controversial links to Iran and North Korea, it’s no wonder the world’s non-aligned powers are treating Russia with caution. Yet the attractions of a BRICS payments system, with preferential access into Chinese and other emerging markets, could prove a greater alure, as multilateral alternatives, from the WTO to the IMF, become hobbled by great power competition and US overreach on sanctions and standards.
TURKEY. Gulen in a new direction
Erdogan faces choices on his past and future.
President Tayyip Erdogan was due to visit Russia for the BRICS, which Turkey recently applied to join, surprising NATO allies. Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen died in exile in Pennsylvania. Erdogan had accused Gulen of a 2016 coup attempt.
INTELLIGENCE. Turkey has always been torn between east and west. Erdogan’s innovation has been to assiduously exploit what his predecessors saw as a dilemma. Seeking to join the BRICS is his latest move to rebalance ties, and presumably get something out of both camps in return. Yet a seeming win for Moscow could be rebuffed. Turkey has annoyed the Kremlin through talks with Armenia that excluded Russia. They are at odds over Syria and Central Asia.
FOR BUSINESS. Turkey won’t entirely be welcomed by other BRICS members either. India is suspicious of its ties with Pakistan. Iran and Egypt see it as a mercurial rival. China is alert to its alleged meddling in ethnically Turkic Xinjiang. Ethiopia could soon be fighting a shadow war with it in Somalia (as BRICS member Egypt). The US, which Erdogan has decried for hosting Gulen and criticising him on human rights, may ultimately prove the better friend.
CUBA. Dark and stormy
Multiple power cuts put the regime in a rum situation.
Most of Havana's electricity was restored Monday after Storm Oscar and fuel shortages caused nationwide blackouts over the prior days. President Miguel Diaz-Canel asked Cubans to act with "discipline" after sporadic protests erupted.
INTELLIGENCE. Energy shortages and economic stagnation have been facts of life since the Soviet Union’s collapse, yet Cuba’s problems have gotten worse in recent years, thanks to the collapse of its replacement sponsor, Venezuela, and a critical shortage of skilled workers. Between 10 and 20% of Cuba's population has left since 2021, mostly to the US (for legal reasons in both countries the numbers are vague). Havana is getting desperate for a new lifeline.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia and China have been expected to enter the void (and exploit the concurrent crisis in nearby Haiti), but beyond a few port visits and hints of renewed spy facilities off Florida’s coast, ties have been marginal (at least when compared to cooperation during the Cold War). Moscow and Beijing are likely waiting for more leverage. Havana is down, but not out. And if it weren’t for sanctions, would probably prefer to get closer to Washington instead.
SUDAN. Down in flames
Things turn for the worse for the Rapid Support Forces.
Footage showed Rapid Support Forces rejoicing Monday after downing an Antonov plane thought to belong to Sudan’s army. Media said it was actually a Kyrgyz-linked, Russian-flown and UAE-registered Ilyushin-76 to support the RSF.
INTELLIGENCE. If it’s confirmed the RSF accidently shot down their own cargo charter flight it’ll only be the latest own goal in a rapidly changing battlefield. The RSF is certainly not out of the fight (tragically for millions of Sudanese facing starvation), but the recent loss of key districts in Khartoum, and the defection of a senior commander to the Sudanese military, indicate rising risks. The Egyptian Air Force has allegedly joined the fray on the side of the junta.
FOR BUSINESS. The case of mistaken identity could also be embarrassing for the UAE, which continues to deny it is arming the rebels, as well as Russia, which had supposedly swung in behind the army (remnants of Wagner allegedly still help the RSF; the crew were likely private contractors). As in neighbouring Libya, multiple regional actors have a stake in the conflict, allowing it to continue and complicating moves in other theatres, such as Syria and Lebanon.