India: Juggernaut
Also: France, Ukraine, the US, Israel, technology, Guyana, and Venezuela.
In addition to our daily risk monitoring brief, the team behind Geopolitical Dispatch also provides advice, risk audits, scenario planning, executive masterclasses and board briefings among other services. Click here to get in touch.
INDIA. Juggernaut
Nothing will prevent Modi from a third term.
Delhi's chief minister, Arvind Kejriwal, was arrested Thursday as authorities accused the opposition figure of financial crimes. The Indian National Congress said the tax department had frozen its accounts, crippling its election campaign.
INTELLIGENCE. Narendra Modi enjoys a wide polling lead, but his Bharatiya Janata Party is leaving little to chance ahead of elections that begin on 19 April. If anything, anti-democratic overreach will hurt his brand. Pollster Morning Consult attributes Modi’s recent 3-point approval poll drop (to a still commanding 57%) to the implementation of anti-Muslim citizenship laws. But for as long as the economy booms, most voters will ignore these worrying signs.
FOR BUSINESS. Modi has shown nothing will stop him from winning. And assuming he does, a third term will be more nationalistic, less democratic, and less transparent. The economy, at the top line, is expected to still grow, but with fewer political checks and balances, the risks of a tougher business environment for new and foreign entrants – particularly in strategic sectors (i.e. sectors where Modi’s friends and BJP donors operate) – can also be expected.
Geopolitical Strategy is the advisory firm behind Geopolitical Dispatch. Our partners are former diplomats with vast experience in international affairs, risk management, and public affairs. We help businesses and investors to understand geopolitical developments and their impacts with clarity and concision.
FRANCE. UKRAINE. Shadow boxing
It’s unclear if Macron is serious about deploying troops.
EU leaders met Thursday to find new ways to help Ukraine, including potentially using the interest from frozen Russian assets to buy arms. France's chief of army staff said Tuesday up to 20,000 French troops could be deployed in 30 days.
INTELLIGENCE. While most in Europe are debating how to fund weapons, France has hinted at sending troops. Paris this week hit back at Moscow’s claims 2,000 soldiers were already on their way, but officials in Kyiv are also fanning speculation, including on where French forces could be placed, such as along Ukraine’s frontier with the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria. France recently signed a defence pact with Moldova, to which Transnistria officially belongs.
FOR BUSINESS. Macron is probably happy to keep his intentions vague if it gives Vladimir Putin pause for thought. The idea of French troops may also help Macron’s newfound tough guy image – a leaf from Putin’s book – though any deaths of French soldiers, who presumably would not be protected by NATO’s Article V obligations, would be a disaster for a president skating on a 30% net approval rating. Surveys show 68% of French voters oppose escalation.
UNITED STATES. ISRAEL. When the going gets tough
Political pressure causes more strain for Biden than Netanyahu.
The US will ask the UN Security Council to support a resolution Friday for an immediate Gaza ceasefire. Antony Blinken said a Rafah assault would be a "mistake". Mike Johnson said he will invite Benjamin Netanyahu to address Congress.
INTELLIGENCE. Joe Biden has come under fire from many supporters, and recently almost 70 former officials and 100 major donors, over Israel. Yet a sop to the progressives could backfire. While uncommitted primary votes in Minnesota and Michigan were attributed to Gaza, the vote will be as much won or lost in mainstream suburbia, where views on Israel are moderate, as in inner-city districts. That, at least, seems to be the calculation of Republicans.
FOR BUSINESS. Should Netanyahu call Washington’s bluff and proceed with an assault (he has ignored previous UN resolutions, such as No.2334 on settlements), he would end up making Biden appear even weaker, which would return the complement after Chuck Schumer called on Israelis to elect a new leader. And while the humanitarian costs of an assault look terrible, there may be little choice if Israel is to destroy Hamas, as its publicly backed war aims posit.
Emailed each weekday at 5am Eastern (9am GMT), Geopolitical Dispatch goes beyond the news to outline the implications. With the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the strategic framing and situational awareness to stay ahead in a changing world.
UNITED STATES. TECHNOLOGY. Wafer thin
The White House won’t just let the chips fall where they may.
The US was determining whether China’s SMIC had violated export rules, the Commerce Department said Thursday, amid reports of further Chinese tech sanctions. The Justice Department sued Apple over an alleged iPhone monopoly.
INTELLIGENCE. The job of government is to regulate, and technology offers many as-yet unregulated areas. Yet ahead of an election with thin margins, and amid a trade war with little room for error, there’s danger Washington could overreach. Unlike the DoJ and the Federal Trade Commission, which have been panned, fairly or not, for anti-trust zealotry, the Commerce Department has taken a more business-friendly approach. This may now be changing.
FOR BUSINESS. Washington has been good to Silicon Valley. Industry valuations have soared. Funding has been lavished to bring back chip manufacturing and protect market dominance. Intelis the latest recipient of an $8.5 billion grant. Last month, $5 billion was pledged for semiconductors. But the push against Apple, the threat against hopelessly comingled Asian supply chains, and the proposed forced sale of TikTok have the appearance of populism.
GUYANA. VENEZUELA. State of flux
Nicolas Maduro continues to push the envelope.
Venezuela’s congress approved the creation of the state of 'Guayana Esequiba' Thursday, covering territory disputed with next-door Guyana. ExxonMobil announced a new discovery off Guyana as CIA chief William Burns visited its capital.
INTELLIGENCE. Burns' visit is meant as a warning to Caracas, but also a tell that events may not be as benign as Guyana's investors make out. While Venezuela would face huge challenges if it were to make good on its Esequiba claim (including US sanctions yet to be applied, despite Maduro’s pre-election crackdowns), it also has leverage of its own, notably in its effect on already high oil prices, and its ability to turn up the tap on regional migration.
FOR BUSINESS. Guyana has a potential that few jurisdictions can match, and the oil majors are keen to get a slice, irrespective of the sovereign risk. Exxonhas been joined by its Chinese partner CNOOC in a dispute with Chevron, which has sought to buy out Hess primarily for its 30% stake in the Exxon-operated Stabroek field. All this could be academic if Venezuela invades Guyana, though Chevron’s operations in Caracas may somewhat insulate the risk.