India: Modi's uncertain dawn
Also: Britain, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, and Somalia.
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INDIA. Modi’s uncertain dawn
A third term could be the beginning of the end.
Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party was on track to win the lower house Tuesday, albeit far short of its 2019 record. India’s six-week election was marked by heatwaves, controversy, and 642 million ballots. Turnout fell by 1.07%.
INTELLIGENCE. Modi’s win was not in doubt, but without a hoped-for supermajority he may struggle to make good on welfare and industry promises. He may need to double-down instead on the Hindu nationalist messaging of his campaign. Part of this was designed to bring rural voters away from caste-based opposition parties, but much of it contained a divisive anti-Muslim chauvinism. Its prominence in his new term could give a clue as to Modi’s successor.
FOR BUSINESS. Modi will be 77 at the next election. He has not named a replacement, but it is likely to be Amit Shah, the BJP's former chief and current Minister of Home Affairs, or Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh and a firebrand monk. Both are better known for hardline policies on security and religion, but during the campaign they also spruiked their economic and development records, including Yogi’s plans to make UP a $1 trillion economy.
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BRITAIN. Sunak’s certain sunset
Nigel Farage threatens a fate worse than electoral loss.
Brexiteer hardliner and leader of Reform UK, Nigel Farage, announced he would stand for the seat of Clacton in Essex Monday. A YouGov poll forecast Labour winning a 422-seat majority, higher than that won by Tony Blair in 1997.
INTELLIGENCE. Farage may end up being Reform’s sole MP, but his party is on course to deny the Conservatives of many marginal seats eyed by Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Moreover, Farage has pledged a Tory “takeover” following the election, which could leave relative centrists like Rishi Sunak homeless. The Tories’ pivot to the right, on issues from gender to national service, can be seen in this context, but won’t likely be enough to stop the inevitable.
FOR BUSINESS. After 14 years in government, the Conservatives face a period in the wilderness. But a hostile takeover by Farage won’t deliver them a future victory on present trends. The average Tory voter is over 60. The average Reform voter is not much younger. It could deliver a boon to another once-dying party, the LibDems, whose vote is more evenly spread by age, but it could also entrench Labour as the dominant big-tent party for a generation.
PAKISTAN. The secret’s out
Pressure builds on Shehbaz Sharif.
Ex-prime minister Imran Khan was acquitted of leaking state secrets Monday but will remain jailed on other charges. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif flew to China Tuesday as questioned circled around Beijing’s infrastructure investments.
INTELLIGENCE. Khan remains Pakistan’s most popular leader but Shehbaz will continue governing for as long as the army, which pulls the strings, permits him and his elder brother Nawaz, who control the Pakistan Muslim League. Shehbaz must also manage the interests of the West – the IMF is concerned about delays to anti-graft reforms – and Beijing, which is worried about security and delays along the $62 billion Pakistan-China Economic Corridor.
FOR BUSINESS. Pakistan is broke and fractured. Regardless of who’s in charge, the military and its creditors will be in control. Islamabad has attempted to balance their influence by borrowing from the Gulf, the West, and China, but this has only further constrained its choices. Khan campaigned on a nationalist platform during the last election but until he’s out of jail there’s little he can do. Dozens of charges remain against him. Now 71, he may die behind bars.
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TURKEY. IRAN. SYRIA. Roads to Damascus
Competition for Syria enters a new phase.
Plans for US-backed Kurds to hold elections in Syria were "unacceptable" Turkey said Monday, days after it killed four Kurdish fighters. Iraq said it was mediating a potential Syria-Turkey reconciliation. An Israeli strike killed 12 in Aleppo.
INTELLIGENCE. Syria’s civil war has died down, with Damascus controlling most of its territory, thanks to Iranian and Russian help, but the remaining conflict’s contours are still as complex. The US backs some actors, Turkey others. Ukraine has begun to involve itself. Things could dramatically change if Ankara and Damascus reestablish cordial ties. Turkey, which is replacing Iran as an Israeli bête noire, could use it to cement wider control across the Euphrates.
FOR BUSINESS. Besides Hezbollah and the Houthis, Damascus remains Tehran’s most potent proxy but it is moving away from its Shiite sponsor as it reestablishes ties with Sunni states. Israel has indirectly assisted Turkey’s aims in the former Ottoman province by attacking Iranian installations. Ankara’s newfound ally in Baghdad (which now hosts Turkish troops) is also helping as it seeks to fill a post-US vacuum. All this poses a challenge for Iran’s next president.
ETHIOPIA. SOMALIA. Peace trains vs warships
Addis may have one less reason to pursue a controversial port.
Chinese media heralded "win-win" cooperation Saturday as ownership of the Djibouti railway transferred to locals. Somalia threatened to kick out Ethiopian troops Monday unless Addis Ababa scrapped a planned port in Somaliland.
INTELLIGENCE. Addis floated a shock port-for-recognition deal with the breakaway Somali province in January to regain access to the sea, which it lost when Eritrea declared independence in 1991. A regional pushback has complicated this plan. Somalia signed a naval deal with Turkey. Egypt, which has the region’s biggest army, has weighed in. Lower fees on the Djibouti railway could be another reason to drop the controversial (and risky) plan.
FOR BUSINESS. Djibouti would have lost lucrative rents if Addis began shipments via Somaliland. New ownership of the railway to its landlocked neighbour could allow the entrepot to renegotiate terms everyone’s happy with. This would be a relief to a region already contending with a war in Sudan and the Houthis’ anti-shipping campaign on the other side of the Red Sea. It would also allow Ethiopian peacekeepers to continue helping Mogadishu fight al-Shabab.