Indonesia: Too cute
Also: Pakistan, the US, Ukraine, Russia, and Estonia.
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INDONESIA. Too cute
The presumptive president-elect is neither a brutal tyrant nor a cuddly meme.
Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former general, was on course to win over 50% of Indonesia's presidential vote Wednesday evening, ahead of his nearest challenger by almost 30 points. Official results will be published in March.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite its growing economic heft, Indonesia is little understood outside Asia and its politics tend toward caricature. On this occasion, the caricature has been to Prabowo’s advantage – his stunning lead is down to a carefully managed social media campaign featuring him as a dancing anime grandpa. Yet beneath the façade is a staunch nationalist in the tradition of Suharto, who is expected to take a harder line than his predecessor on China.
FOR BUSINESS. Prabowo, despite the equally cartoonish portrayals in the West as an ex-military villain, is a fan of the US and trained at Fort Benning. Via his vice president, Joko Widodo’s son Gibran Rakabuming, an accommodating stance toward Chinese investment will continue, but a harder line can be expected on Beijing’s provocations in the South China Sea. That said, Prabowo also likes a deal. Last year, he suggested a Korea-style armistice line in Ukraine.
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PAKISTAN. There’s an old Sharif in town
Nawaz’s brother emerges as a compromise leader.
Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League appointed ex-prime minister Shehbaz Sharif to lead a new coalition government late Tuesday. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People’s Party said it would give support from the outside.
INTELLIGENCE. After elections marred by irregularities and the jailing of Imran Khan, whose supporters – forced to run as independents – gained the majority of votes, Shehbaz’s re-appointment will gall many Pakistanis. With the support of the military elite, the de facto alliance of Pakistan’s two big political clans may promise a modicum of stability in the short term, but unless Khan’s allies are to be barred from parliament, they will form a noisy opposition.
FOR BUSINESS. Pakistani stocks rose on the news of the PPP’s support. Shehbaz will likely extend Pakistan’s IMF program and continue its pivot back to the West. Plans to sell the national airline and stabilise the rupee remain on track. Yet without democratic legitimacy, Pakistan will struggle to attain genuine stability. Further, the PPP’s apparent request for the presidency and governorships of all four states suggests the prospect of parallel administrations.
UNITED STATES. House of cards
Republicans dig in after losing New York’s third district.
Democrat Tom Suozzi was re-elected to his old seat on Tuesday, further narrowing the Republican House majority. Speaker Mike Johnson said he wanted to meet Joe Biden before considering the Senate's national security package.
INTELLIGENCE. With the loss of the erstwhile George Santos, Johnson is even more beholden to the Republican right for the passage of laws. And, at the moment, the Senate’s $95 billion bill – with $60 billion for Ukraine – looks dead in the water. House Republicans won temporary success with the passage of an impeachment vote (the second such attempt) against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, yet this similarly will die in the Senate.
FOR BUSINESS. Both parties are biding time. Bipartisanship is being claimed but real compromise on hard issues is lacking. By abdicating governance, space is being given over to spectacle and the re-emergence of the clan-style politics voters turned against when 2016 looked set to be a Bush-Clinton rematch. Donald Trump has endorsed his daughter-in-law as Republican National Committee co-chair. Some Democrats are asking Michelle Obama to run.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Easier said than Donetsk
Kyiv’s new military chief is off to a bad start.
Oleksandr Syrsky said Wednesday the situation in Avdiivka, near Donetsk, was "extremely complex" amid reports that Russia had killed hundreds of elite Ukrainian reinforcements via bombing raids before they had reached the frontline.
INTELLIGENCE. Unpopular with the troops due to Soviet-style surge tactics in Bakhmut, Syrsky’s move to reinforce the losing battle at Avdiivka (at Volodymyr Zelensky’s apparent order) was bound to be risky. Better results continue to be seen on the Black Sea, where another Russian ship is reported to have been destroyed, but the war will be won or lost on land. Reuters has reported the US has rejected a Russian ceasefire request. The Kremlin has denied this.
FOR BUSINESS. Syrsky’s position could be short-lived if the ceasefire reports are true. While both sides will inevitably deny them, the Reuters report seems a credible signal of a potential future deal, particularly as Western armaments run low, Russian inflation runs hot, and US funding (presumably) runs out. Two further signals are Emmanuel Macron’s recent decision to postpone a visit to Ukraine and bolder Chinese messaging on support for Russia.
ESTONIA. Lightening Balt
A former Soviet republic attracts Putin’s ire.
Moscow placed Estonia’s prime minister on a wanted list Tuesday for destroying Soviet monuments. The Kremlin was preparing for a military confrontation with the West in the next ten years, Estonia's foreign intelligence service said.
INTELLIGENCE. The Baltics, particularly Estonia, are among the most aggressively pro-Western of Russia’s former satellites. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas even appeared to give Donald Trump tacit support on Monday, following his comments about not backing NATO allies that spend less than 2% of GDP on defence (Estonia spends 2.73% – just after Poland, the US and Greece). Yet 22% of Estonia’s population are Russians. Tallinn can only poke the bear so far.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia knows an assault on a NATO member could draw in the US, even under Trump. Yet non-kinetic options exist, including cyberattacks (which Estonia’s tech-heavy economy frequently suffers) and infrastructure sabotage (cables beneath the Baltic have been cut). There’s also the role of third countries. It’s unlikely China would have reacted so assertively to Lithuania’s alleged Taiwan infractions had Russia not been cheering it on.