Inshallah Habibi
Iran, Israel, the UAE, Panama, Mexico, and the markets.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. US allies demure on reopening Hormuz.
ISRAEL. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. A rival alliance takes shape.
PANAMA. China tries to flip a point of supply chain leverage.
MEXICO. Trump tests Sheinbaum ahead of trade talks.
MARKETS. Amid a global crisis, stocks seem artificially elevated.
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IRAN. Coalition of God willing
US allies demure on reopening Hormuz.
The US confirmed reports it was assembling a new “Maritime Freedom Construct” to bring together allies and companies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Britain unveiled a new “Northern Navies Initiative” to deter Russia from the North Sea.
INTELLIGENCE. Besides Lithuania, no one has yet shown interest in the new coalition of the willing. France and the UK have their own plans, in addition to the Royal Navy’s initiative against Russia. Japan is talking to Iran directly about safe passage. Germany has joined Italy and Spain in the diplomatic dogbox. Canada sees its US ties as “weakness”. Australia is securing jet fuel from China. This may be fresh grist for the America First mill, but it won’t open Hormuz.
FOR BUSINESS. Like Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, which has allegedly only received $1 billion of $17 billion pledged, the Maritime Freedom Construct looks forlorn. With no Tony Blair to Trump’s George Bush, the US will need to find other options. Israel reportedly assesses fighting to resume next week. CENTCOM has allegedly given a range of kinetic options to the administration. Tehran has promised to respond with “long and painful strikes” if attacked.
ISRAEL. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. Spartan league
A rival alliance takes shape.
Israel had deployed laser systems to the UAE, the Financial Times reported, in the first major sign of defence cooperation. Saudi Arabia had warned Lebanon not to “outpace” the kingdom in its outreach to Israel amid US urging, Reuters said.
INTELLIGENCE. The Iran War briefly obscured the growing rift between Riyadh and