Inside an enigma

Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Iran, South Korea, the UK, and France.

Poster for the film 'Russkiy vopros' (the Russian Question), 1948, Mosfilm.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow’s aims are a riddle; Washington’s a mystery.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. A collision course returns.

• SOUTH KOREA. Lee seeks to build out his options.

• BRITAIN. A country of rules turns in on itself.

• FRANCE. Macron loses his diplomatic sangfroid.

We are taking a publishing break tomorrow, 26 August, but are still available for urgent client requests. We will otherwise be back in your inbox on Wednesday.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

Upgrade today for access to all five daily briefings, five days a week, as relied on by leaders and investors across 150 countries. Upgrade to GD Pro for even more.

UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Quo vladis?

Moscow’s aims are a riddle; Washington’s a mystery.

Sergey Lavrov said only the Security Council could ensure the security of Ukraine, "which must be neutral." White House envoy Keith Kellogg visited Ukraine for its Independence Day. JD Vance said Russia had made "significant concessions".

INTELLIGENCE. Lavrov has seemingly dumbfounded the White House, walking back many of the apparent commitments made between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Anchorage. But compared to Washington, Moscow's position has been relatively clear. Different parts of the US administration continue to signal mutually irreconcilable aims. This may suit Trump, for whom optionality remains an organising principle, but it is shaking Kyiv.

FOR BUSINESS. In the absence of predictability, Ukraine is probing for US red lines via increasingly audacious attacks on Russian infrastructure, cutting oil supplies to Hungary and, in Sunday’s strike in Kursk, risking nuclear accident. This also serves to remind Moscow of Kyiv's asymmetric capabilities, particularly with new long-range domestic missiles. Refined petroleum prices have already risen in Russia. There's a risk crude prices could rise globally as well.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Learn more about how we can help you to map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.

ISRAEL. IRAN. Absolute cluster

A collision course returns.

At least six were killed in Yemen's capital as Israel retaliated against a “cluster” missile attack by the Iran-aligned Houthis. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said hostility with the US was "unsolvable" as the IAEA prepared to meet with the White House.

INTELLIGENCE. The International Atomic Energy Agency is increasingly agitated