Interdependence day

China, the US, Israel, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ukraine, Russia, and Colombia.

Spring Landscape after Rain, Zhang Daqian, c. 20th century, ink and colour on paper, private collection.

The five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. A shift in tone suggests a need for stability.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Belligerents prepare for a hot peace.

• EGYPT. ETHIOPIA. Addis attempts a hydroelectric fait accompli.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv is forced into an asymmetric posture.

• COLOMBIA. Bogota’s political crisis deepens.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Pause button

A shift in tone suggests a need for stability.

War between the US and China was "inconceivable", the Communist Party's chief diplomat said Thursday. Washington had begun to scope out businesses to accompany Donald Trump on a possible trip to Beijing, Bloomberg said.

INTELLIGENCE. Sino-American rivalry remains entrenched, and there has been disquiet from Beijing about the trans-shipment provisions of Washington's framework tariff agreement with Hanoi, but there are subtle signs that both sides wish to stabilise relations. In the wake of the budget, Donald Trump has some rare domestic reprieve. Xi Jinping is, meanwhile, too busy with a military corruption purge to do more than symbolically harass Taiwan. Time for a visit?

FOR BUSINESS. The US this week lifted export restrictions on chip design software and ethane. Last week, China began re-exporting rare earths to US manufacturers, albeit in an orchestrated way. In a generational contest, this is more truce than peace, but it expresses the two sides' mutual dependence. Round two may begin after the US sorts out its trade with the rest of the world. Trump said Thursday the US would "probably" start sending tariff letters today.

Ahead of President Trump’s 9 July trade deal deadline, we have outlined four scenarios for what could come next. We would love to hear your views.

ISRAEL. IRAN. Oslo discords

Belligerents prepare for a hot peace.

Hamas said it was consulting about a US-backed truce. Marco Rubio cancelled a visit to South Korea and Japan so he could join Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. Steve Witkoff would meet Iran's foreign minister in Oslo on Monday.

INTELLIGENCE. Talks are gaining pace, and foreign ministers are speaking of peace.