Introducing Geopolitical Strategy
And our new reader survey.
Supply chain disruptions. Tension in the Taiwan Strait. A bloody attack on Israel and Russia’s grisly invasion of Ukraine. Artificial Intelligence. The takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh. Coups in Niger, Mali, Gabon. A possible land grab in Guyana.
It’s hard to deny that geopolitical risk for business is rising globally, driven by a new national security paradigm.
For most boards and decision-makers, the operating environment is unlike the one in which they developed their business acumen. Many took their early steps, developed relationships and built networks during a time when globalisation was lauded, and free markets and even freer trade were assumed to lift prosperity for all.
This is no longer the case.
As security concerns take prominence, governments are responding as they always have: by elevating security interests above economic interests. Businesses are having to use the tools at their disposal to manage and adapt to these new risks.
Readers of Geopolitical Dispatch know this.
Since we began in May, we have published 750 individual reports and are now read in 100 countries with one of the highest open rates on Substack. Our community of readers includes CEOs, business strategists, former foreign ministers, heads of international institutions, and renowned think tanks.
We know geopolitics matters, and so do you.
But as Lenin once asked: what is to be done?
Introducing our new service: Geopolitical Strategy.
Geopolitical Strategy is the advisory arm of Geopolitical Dispatch. Three in our team – Damien Bruckard, Michael Feller, and Kim Northwood – have gotten together with another former diplomat – Jill Brightling – to help firms make better decisions on international strategy, investments and operations.
As detailed on our website, we’re here to specifically help with geopolitical strategy development – whether that’s scenario planning, executive masterclasses, or board briefings – and geopolitical risk monitoring – including situation reports, risk alerts and monitoring services.
With the same clarity of thought as Geopolitical Dispatch, but customised to your requirements, the aim of Geopolitical Strategy is to ensure your business has the tools to manage geopolitical challenges.
Having introduced Geopolitical Strategy, we’d be keen for you to introduce yourselves.
As we head towards the end of 2023, we’d be grateful if you could please fill out this short survey to help us shape Geopolitical Dispatch and Geopolitical Strategy into 2024.
We last ran a survey in August, which was invaluable in honing our daily briefings and preparing for our next steps.
And with so many of you new to Geopolitical Dispatch, we’d love to get your thoughts as well.
Last week’s poll results.
Last week’s Not in Dispatches dealt with the geopolitics of maritime trade and maritime choke points.
We asked you which maritime choke point will be most vulnerable in 2024. Some 41% of you thought the Strait of Hormuz, though 22% and 18% respectively believe the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca are likely to be most in the crosshairs. The Panama Canal and the Bosporus picked up 12% and 8% of votes respectively.
We also asked what would be the biggest risk to shipping in the Persian Gulf. The overwhelming majority thought Iranian aggression at 63%, but US and allied aggression also received a respectable 26% of votes, with others choosing climate change and weather, port capacity and fees, plus maritime pollution and oil spills.
Finally, we asked when you thought the Northern Sea Route would become profitable for China-Europe passage. Results were more evenly split. 38% of you thought it already was. 42% thought by 2030. 19% thought never.
Next week we’ll be returning to our usual format with a special look at the year gone by and the year to come. In it will be some annual forecasts for you to fill out as well. We live in interesting times and would be very interested in your predictions.
As always, thanks for reading.
Best,
The Geopolitical Dispatch team.