Invitation to treaty
NATO, Turkey, Iran, Cuba, and Brazil.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
NATO. Trump shows he’ll support Europe, but only for a price.
TURKEY. His moment uncertain, Erdogan does what it takes.
IRAN. The US is running out of time, money, arms, and more.
CUBA. For Marco Rubio, the pressure is personal.
BRAZIL. Falling in the polls, Bolsonaro seeks Washington’s help.
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NATO. Allegiance, not alliance
Trump shows he'll support Europe, but only for a price.
Donald Trump said he would send 5,000 troops to Poland “based on” his relationship with President Karol Nawrocki. Marco Rubio said Trump was “very disappointed” with some NATO members ahead of a meeting of alliance ministers.
INTELLIGENCE. As NATO foreign ministers gather in Stockholm, on the other side of the Baltic Sea, Latvia and Lithuania are again scrambling jets against drone incursions. Trump’s pivot on Poland – a previous deployment of 4,000 troops was suspended after he decreed that another 5,000 would soon be leaving Germany – suggests the US isn’t blind to the risks on the bloc’s eastern front. But linking the move to Nawrocki infers a personalist quid pro quo.
FOR BUSINESS. Allocating troops as personal favour links the strategic to the political. The EU is working hard to ensure there’s not an economic dimension – striking a provisional agreement Wednesday to finalise a US trade deal by 4 July – but with European rules on climate and technology also irritating the White House, there’s no guarantee that issues will stay compartmentalised. More European leaders may be required to adopt the posture of Mark Rutte.
TURKEY. Means fair and foul
His moment uncertain, Erdogan does what it takes.
The Borsa Istanbul index fell 6%, triggering a circuit break, after an appeals court voided the 2023 election of Ozgur Ozel as head of the opposition Republican People’s Party. State banks sold $6 billion in foreign currency to defend the lira.
INTELLIGENCE. Ozel’s annulment means his less popular predecessor, Kemal