The five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Tehran’s centrifugal politics could spin out of control.
ROMANIA. A pro-Russian nationalist takes a surprise lead in first-round elections.
AUSTRIA. Locked out of Vienna, the far right doubles its seats in Styria.
THE PHILIPPINES. Sara Duterte threatens to kill the president.
CLIMATE CHANGE. Baku’s summit ends as hypocritically as it began.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk. Based on the US Presidential Daily Brief, it’s not news, it’s intelligence.
IRAN. Atomic habits
Tehran’s centrifugal politics could spin out of control.
European diplomats will meet with Tehran again on Friday after a uranium enrichment limitation deal collapsed last week. Iran said Sunday it would activate 5,000 new and advanced centrifuges in response to an IAEA censure motion.
INTELLIGENCE. Since the US withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, Tehran has engaged in a cycle of nuclear brinksmanship and retreat, a process broadly mirroring its domestic politics and developments across the wider Middle East. Ahead of Donald Trump’s return, Tehran wants to increase its negotiating leverage, but going too far could make things worse. Adding to the complication are persistent doubts about Ali Khamenei’s health.
FOR BUSINESS. A looming succession battle for the role of supreme leader could make hardliners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps less willing to compromise with the government moderates who are notionally in charge of nuclear negotiations. Further, the IRGC is on the defensive after the humiliations suffered by its proxies in Gaza and Lebanon. Yet hopes of a “grand bargain” with the Trump administration could also favour early compromise.
Stay ahead with Geopolitical Dispatch — 5 essential stories, 5 days a week, delivered at 5am ET — produced exclusively by former diplomats and government officials. We speak to insiders around the world to help insiders around the world.
ROMANIA. Danube Donald
A pro-Russian nationalist takes a surprise lead in first-round elections.
Calin Georgescu, a hard-right anti-NATO independent polling at around 5%, came a surprise first in Sunday's presidential election, winning 23% of votes. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, of the Social Democrats, came second with 19%.
INTELLIGENCE. Georgescu is less Trump-like than fourth-placed populist George Simion, who won 14%. And with his background as an