Iran, I saw, I conquered?
Join our Iran briefing.
Hello from Paris.
Following US and Israeli military strikes inside Iran, the reported death of Ali Khamenei, and in light of what is clearly a highly volatile and uncertain situation — with significant risks for Iran, Israel, the broader region and the global economy — I wanted to write directly.
The past 48 hours have marked a serious escalation. Diplomacy appears, at least for now, to have given way to force. The prospect of extended retaliation, disruption to energy flows, and wider regional spillover is no longer hypothetical.
Our Chief Strategist, Michael Feller, set out the strategic outlook and risks in detail yesterday in his Week Signals essay, “Two strikes, but is Iran out?”, available to paid subscribers. He examines the current situation and the potential consequences for markets and business. I would encourage you to read this thought-provoking piece.
In light of these developments, our monthly Private Roundtables, taking place this Monday 2 March and Tuesday 3 March (with two time options to accommodate all time zones), will naturally focus heavily on short-term Iran scenarios, escalation pathways and containment probabilities, risks to energy markets and trade, and the broader implications for business and investors.
We will be pleased to be joined by Heidi Venamore, our Senior Advisor on Middle Eastern politics, for the Tuesday session. Heidi is a distinguished diplomat and strategic advisor with 35 years of public service experience, more than half of which was spent in the Middle East. She has served as Australia’s Ambassador to the UAE and Jordan, been posted to Iraq and Israel, worked with the World Bank’s West Bank and Gaza Mission, and advised businesses on crisis management, trade and investment across the region.
As usual, we will also cover a wider range of geopolitical topics. However, given the apparent failure of diplomacy and the potential onset of a very significant conflict, Iran will be the core focus.
As a brief reminder, our Saturday Week Signals in-depth essays and our monthly Private Roundtables are available to paying subscribers.
The Private Roundtable format is a 30-minute structured discussion between me, Michael, and our CEO, Christian Habla, followed by 30 minutes of completely off-the-record discussion, where you can ask us any questions directly.
These sessions take place every month in the first week and are designed to go well beyond the daily brief.
If you would like to join this week’s session, the details and registration links are below the paywall. If you are currently a free subscriber, you simply need to upgrade your subscription and you can register immediately.
We know many of you operate in or have exposure to the Middle East. We also know some of our readers are in Iran and the broader region. We sincerely hope you and your teams are safe.
We would be very pleased to see you at the Roundtable.
Best wishes,
Damien
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