Iran: Israel vs reality
Also: Somalia, Ethiopia, the Baltic Sea, Guyana, Venezuela, and Tonga.
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IRAN. Israel vs reality
Tehran faces risks much closer to home.
At least 27 were killed Thursday when militants attacked two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities near the port of Chabahar. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel would be "slapped" following an attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus.
INTELLIGENCE. Israel will be in focus today, as Tehran marks its annual 'Quds (Jerusalem) Day' of anti-Zionist protests, but a more immediate threat is in the form of Sunni terrorism. Beside the ethnic Balochi attacks near Chabahar – which earlier this year led to reprisals inside Pakistan, alleged to be supporting the militants – authorities this week arrested two suspected ISIS-Khorasan members, alleged to have been planning a strike in the city of Qom.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran and Pakistan have agreed to cooperate on security and pursue a gas pipeline (Pakistan’s own strategic port of Gwadar last month came under attack from alleged Iran-based Balochi militants), but they are in fierce competition for hosting Central Asia’s key transit link to the Indian Ocean. Chabahar and Gwadar hope to become key nodes for Russian and Chinese exporters respectively, yet militants, including ISIS, have other ideas.
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SOMALIA. ETHIOPIA. Taking a punt
Tensions rise in the Horn of Africa.
Somalia expelled Ethiopia's ambassador Thursday following talks between Ethiopia and officials from the region of Puntland. Puntland last week said it would withdraw from Somalia’s federal system in protest of constitutional changes.
INTELLIGENCE. Relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa were already in crisis, following Ethiopia’s January decision to strike a port deal with Somaliland, which could possibly lead to diplomatic recognition of the breakaway region. Should adjacent Puntland decide to follow, Somalia would be without half its territory. Puntland is traditionally home to most of Somalia's pirates, many of whom have recently resumed operations in the Indian Ocean.
FOR BUSINESS. Mogadishu’s biggest threat is the al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab terrorist group in Somalia’s south, and for this reason the US is building five new bases and Turkey has announced a naval partnership. Yet a clash with Ethiopia would be costlier, particularly as it could drag in more external players, including Egypt, the UAE and Eritrea – which last week hosted Russia’s deputy naval chief amid speculation Moscow is searching for a new regional base.
THE BALTIC. Nord scream
NATO’s lake remains vulnerable.
Denmark closed access to the Great Belt Strait Thursday due to a faulty naval missile launcher. Copenhagen sacked its defence chief Wednesday after he failed to report the faults, which emerged during a Houthi attack in the Red Sea.
INTELLIGENCE. Denmark, which owns the strategic island of Greenland and recently signed a permanent basing deal with the US, said in February it would send its entire artillery stocks to Ukraine, but recent naval embarrassments, not to mention repeated Russian threats in the Baltic, may put paid to that. Earlier this week, Russia was suspected of jamming GPS signals for 72 hours. Its territory of Kaliningrad is thought to house electronic and nuclear weapons.
FOR BUSINESS. Analysts began calling the Baltic a “NATO lake” following the accession of Sweden and Finland, but with Russia’s Baltic Fleet still the region’s largest naval power, and the fate of the Nord Stream pipeline unresolved, the lake isn’t placid. With between 5 and 15% of global maritime trade – much of it Russian LNG and fertiliser – it is an often overlooked chokepoint. Russia's port of Ust-Luga, near St Petersburg, handles a similar tonnage to Hamburg.
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GUYANA. VENEZUELA. Essequibo, easy go
Maduro starts to act like he means it.
Guyana condemned Venezuela Thursday for signing into law the results of a referendum claiming two-thirds of Guyana's territory. The US denied it had "secret military bases" in Guyana after Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
INTELLIGENCE. Maduro’s claim to the historically contested region of Essequibo has largely been seen in the context of Venezuela’s July elections and a desire to keep the US second-guessing a return to the oil sanctions of the Trump era. Yet to the consternation of Western oil firms that have looked through the crisis, Maduro is starting to act on his threats. And the further he escalates, the harder it will be to back down. Moscow said Tuesday Maduro will soon visit.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia is not the only actor giving Venezuela support. As Caracas eyes membership of the BRICS, it is rebuilding ties with Tehran and deepening cooperation with Beijing. Venezuela recently acquired Chinese-built SHH100 anti-drone systems. Maduro has conflated external threats with the local opposition, whose top candidates have been barred from running. Police have arrested dozens of political campaigners, including a Chevron employee.
TONGA. Polynesian polycrisis
Interests collide in the South Pacific.
Prime Minister Siaosi Sovaleni said he was open to Chinese offers of security support ahead of Tonga hosting the Pacific Islands Forum in August. Sovaleni earlier resigned as defence minister after King Tupou VI withdrew support..
INTELLIGENCE. Tupou VI, who was prime minister before becoming heir to the throne in 2006, is ostensibly a figurehead, but has intervened in politics before, dismissing Tonga's first commonly elected prime minister, Akilisi Pohiva, in 2017 (Pohiva subsequently won the following snap election by a landslide). Sovaleni remains premier for now, but his foreign minister has also been sacked by the king. The two posts are vacant with no guidance yet given.
FOR BUSINESS. Tonga's economy is tiny and reliant on tourism, aid and copra. But political instability and Beiing’s creeping influence is being mirrored across the region, forcing Washington to reassert its diplomatic presence, and Canberra and Wellington to pivot their development programs. Besides sandy beaches, the Pacific is rich in fish, underwater minerals, and islands suitable for satellite ground stations. China’s foreign minister visited Tonga in 2022.