Iran, Russia: A deal, wrapped in a mystic, inside an enigma

Also: Turkey, Ukraine, Israel, and France.

Dance of Sufi Dervishes, Kamāl ud-Dīn Behzād, c1480-90, Persian miniature, Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York.

In today’s dispatch:

• IRAN. RUSSIA. Putin and Pezeshkian meet at a conference for a Sufi poet.

• TURKEY. RUSSIA. Moscow and Ankara compete in Central Asia and beyond.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Without Biden, Zelensky examines other options.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. The IRGC reportedly finds a mole in the leadership.

• FRANCE. Barnier proposes an austerity budget.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

IRAN. RUSSIA. A deal, wrapped in a mystic, inside an enigma

Putin and Pezeshkian meet at a conference for a Sufi poet.

Masoud Pezeshkian will meet Vladimir Putin Friday at a forum on the 18th-century mystic Magtymguly Pyragy in Turkmenistan, state media reported. Kyiv urged Ashgabat to respect the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant.

INTELLIGENCE. It's unlikely poetry will be the main topic of discussion. The strangeness of the venue, and swiftness of its scheduling (Pezeshkian is due to travel to Russia for a BRICS summit later this month) suggests an urgency beyond the bilateral agenda, whether in the Caucasus (Putin recently agreed with Armenia to withdraw Russian troops from the border with Iran), energy (plans for a regional oil and gas network have been pushed by both), or weapons.

FOR BUSINESS. The details are unlikely to be disclosed, but the Middle East, more than Central Asia or Ukraine, will be most in focus. Putin, who still has a degree of influence in Israel, has an opportunity to negotiate a resolution to the current crisis, but will be constrained by sensitivities towards the Gulf, which he is seeking to court. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince hosted Iran’s foreign minister Wednesday. On Thursday, he said he wouldn’t attend the BRICS gathering.

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TURKEY. RUSSIA. ‘stan-off

Moscow and Ankara compete in Central Asia and beyond.

Syrian talks in Sochi were placed in doubt Thursday after Turkey attacked the Kurdish region of Afrin. Turkish textbooks would refer to Central Asia as "Turkestan" Ankara said. President Tayyip Erdogan signed a joint statement on Ukraine.

INTELLIGENCE. The signatories included Volodymyr Zelensky at a summit in Croatia. Turkey, a NATO member, remains