Iran: War hawk down
Also: Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Russia, West Africa, and China.
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IRAN. War hawk down
The death of a fundamentalist won’t change the fundamentals.
No signs of life were found Monday at the site of a crashed Bell 212 helicopter carrying Iran’s president and foreign minister. The helicopter had crashed Sunday following a visit to a joint hydroelectric project on the Azerbaijan border.
INTELLIGENCE. President Ebrahim Raisi was a hardliner, responsible for the crackdown on dress code protesters and escalation with the West. News of his likely death was reportedly greeted by jubilation in liberal areas of Tehran. But he will be swiftly replaced by First Vice President Muhammad Mukhbar, best known for his closeness (like Raisi) to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and role in deepening ties with Russia, including through the sale of Shahed drones.
FOR BUSINESS. A new president will be elected within 50 days. Another hardliner is expected. The real succession test come whenever Khamenei, 85, departs. Raisi had been speculated as a frontrunner for Supreme Leader. The other chief contender is Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, who is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. No foul play is likely. The helicopter was old. But, if convenient, the regime could easily blame Israel – an ally of Azerbaijan.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Plan to fail
The opposition makes a demand Netanyahu can’t deliver.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan pressed Benjamin Netanyahu Sunday for a humanitarian plan as fighting continued. War cabinet member Benny Gantz gave Netanyahu an 8 June deadline to present a post-war strategy.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu’s erstwhile allies are growing tired of his habitual fence-sitting and delay, but the prime minister has reasons not to outline a post-war plan at this point, with Hamas’s negotiating position likely to be radically different in the weeks ahead if Israel’s Rafah assault manages to neutralise its remaining battalions. Some have come to Bibi’s defence, notably Donald Trump’s potential running-mate Elise Stefanik, who was also in Israel.
FOR BUSINESS. Gantz joins defence minister Yoav Gallant in publicly rebuking Netanyahu. This may seem good politics, as thousands continue to demonstrate against the war, and for the release of remaining hostages. But it could easily backfire if any military failure can be blamed on cabinet disunity. Hopes for the hostages are meanwhile diminishing as more bodies get recovered. Any choice between war and captives could soon become a false one.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. End of the beginning
Zelensky enters a constitutional grey zone.
Volodymyr Zelensky began the final day of his official presidential term Monday as polls continue to show he would lose an election, if held. Streets emptied Saturday as new conscription laws began and Kyiv warned of full mobilisation.
INTELLIGENCE. Ukraine’s constitution disallows term extensions but forbids elections under martial law. Zelensky’s popularity is waning as Ukrainians bristle at the graft that led to promised border defences being overrun this month in Kharkiv. He has blamed the West, which has restricted the use of missiles across the border. A reported success in Crimea, using US ATACMS missiles to destroy two MiG-31s, is meanwhile being revealed as an expensive decoy.
FOR BUSINESS. Westerners, who once slammed Indonesia’s Prabowo Subianto for proposing an armistice, are now recommending a “Korea option”, where Russia keeps a rump statelet in return for peace. The borders of this are now in focus. Vladimir Putin has spoken of a “buffer zone”, indicating he may accept the four regions declared in his initial war aims as sufficient for Russia’s loss of blood, treasure, and reputation. What’s sufficient for Zelensky is unknown.
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DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. Way of the Dinosaur
A failed putsch waves the flag of Mobutu Sese Seko.
Security forces killed opposition politician Christian Malanga early Sunday after he and uniformed men aligned to his United Congolese Party, some carrying foreign passports, attempted to storm Felix Tshisekedi’s presidential palace.
INTELLIGENCE. Wearing party insignia, which includes the flag of Mobutu’s former state of Zaire, and aligning their would-be putsch with the date of the so-called “Dinosaur’s” 1967 coup, Malanga and his posse had a retro feel. Yet their cause, as it was ostensibly for Zaire (and Africa’s coups last year) seems to have been an anti-Western pan-Africanism, which remains a very current concern, as evidenced by Kinshasa’s recent anti-US, pro-Russia rallies.
FOR BUSINESS. The irony for the deceased Malanga is, being a US residence, his attempted coup can now be blamed on the West, if Tshisekedi so decides. Tshisekedi, sensing the zeitgeist and noting the West’s historic support to Rwanda, whose proxies are destroying Congo’s east, has already made such noises, including in comments delivered at his most recent inauguration. The US embassy has sought to distance itself. The wily “Dinosaur” would be smiling.
CHINA. Charity begins at home
Beijing attempts a belated rescue of the property sector.
Beijing announced $42 billion in loans Friday to allow state-owned enterprises to purchase unsold apartments and convert these into social housing. China announced an anti-dumping probe on US and European polymers Sunday.
INTELLIGENCE. The policy is a sign Xi Jinping either senses the inevitability of a broader real estate sector rescue or feels he has sufficiently purged the property and financial industries of unscrupulous cadres so as not to reward bad behaviour. It could also be seen as an attempt to recharge Chinese growth via the traditional channel of fixed-asset investment rather than mass production and exports, which have revived a strong protectionist impulse in the West.
FOR BUSINESS. Xi will need to take care his package does not merely create a new set of bad-debt problems. Social housing, rather than luxury estates, may be more in keeping with Xi’s pronouncements on socialism with Chinese characteristics, but misguided investment, in whatever form, will be a drag on Chinese growth. And unlike low-cost EVs, batteries and solar panels, it can’t be used to destroy foreign competition or coerce foreign favours either.