Irregular: a month of change, and of continuity
A preview into our private monthly roundtable from September.
Please enjoy a short clip from our most recent private roundtable
Hello from Paris,
It’s been a busy month in geopolitics, and a busy month for me, as I return from several weeks in Washington, New York and London. There were many highlights, some of which I plan to expand upon in future editions, but one of these was a regular occurrence, which I’m inviting you to participate in.
Each month, I sit down with Michael Feller, our Chief Strategist, for a private session with Geopolitical Dispatch Pro subscribers. It’s a format that’s become a rhythm for us: thirty minutes of structured conversation between Michael and me, recorded and shared with the Dispatch Pro community, followed by an off-the-record discussion with participants. What we try to do is distil the month’s chaos into key themes that matter for business leaders and then push the conversation forward into what the next month might bring. Today’s Irregular is a preview of the kind of analysis our Geopolitical Dispatch Pro subscribers receive each month.
At the beginning of this month we ranged across familiar ground: Trump’s trade policy, US–India–China dynamics, Europe’s predicament, the Middle East, and the broader question of authoritarian consolidation. It was, as I told Michael at the outset, another “big month in geopolitics.”
Today, we’re sharing a summary of the conversation to give you a peek at the advantages of a Geopolitical Dispatch Professional subscription. Please enjoy.
Trump’s Tariff Machine
We began where everyone in business is focused: Washington’s tariff regime. In August, the US Court of Appeals questioned Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose reciprocal tariffs. The case is now on track for the Supreme Court. At the same time, new sectoral tariffs are being rolled out, from steel to semiconductors, with pharma widely expected to be next.
Michael’s view was blunt: whether through the courts or Congress, Trump will get his way. Tariffs are not a side-show; they are a central pillar of his presidency and of the Republican Party brand. Even if the Supreme Court rules against him, legislation will follow. Companies should not expect relief.
More worrying, Michael argued, is the economic context. Markets have been charging ahead, but valuations are stretched, and the signs of fragility are everywhere. He compared the mood to 2007, when the financial crisis was still a rumour but the “writing was on the wall.” Tariffs might be the trigger for a correction, or perhaps monetary policy, or some unforeseen shock. But the risks are unmistakable.
The US and India Fall Out
From Washington, we turned to Asia, where one of the most striking developments of the past month has been the extraordinary deterioration in US–India relations. Meanwhile, the cameras caught Modi and Putin literally walking hand-in-hand with Xi Jinping.
Michael traced the rift back to Trump’s personal grievances: Modi’s refusal to nominate him for a Nobel Prize, and his outright rejection of Trump’s intervention on Kashmir. Having worked on India in the Australian government, Michael underscored how sacred the Kashmir issue is in Indian politics. For Trump to meddle was to touch a seventy-year-old nerve.
Add to that Trump’s demand for a Nobel and his decision to slap a 50 per cent tariff on India, and you get the extraordinary situation we see today. Yet, Michael argued, the animus is personal rather than structural. The US and India are natural partners; India and China are not. History shows how quickly any rapprochement between Delhi and Beijing can fall apart, as it did in the 1960s when Mao humiliated Nehru by invading Indian territory.
So while it may be embarrassing for Washington to see images of Modi, Putin, and Xi laughing together, Michael’s judgment was firm: in five years’ time, that troika will look unnatural, because it is unnatural. India and Russia may sustain ties, but China is the odd man out.
Europe Without Leaders
The third theme was Europe, where Putin’s visit to Washington and subsequent scramble of European leaders to the White House revealed just how exposed the continent has become.
Michael described Europe as “stuck.” The EU and NATO confer strength, but they also diffuse responsibility. No single leader has stepped up. Merkel once did, her pointed finger at Trump at the 2018 G7 Summit remains one of the iconic images of that era, but today France’s Macron is too unpopular, Germany’s Merz too unproven, Italy’s Meloni not positioned to lead, and Britain’s Starmer out of the club. Supranational institutions cannot play that role either.
The result, he argued, is symbolism without substance: sanctions on firms that haven’t traded with Russia for years, sanctions on individuals who long ago wrote off their European assets. Real support to Ukraine has been limited to the purchase of US equipment. Putin and Trump, he suggested, see this as Russia’s Waterloo moment. The likeliest trajectory is for the war to grind on until the end of the year, perhaps producing a ceasefire along current battle lines once winter mud sets in.
The Middle East on a Knife Edge
Our fourth theme was the Middle East, which remains volatile on multiple fronts: Gaza, the Houthis, and Iran’s nuclear programme. And this was recorded before Israel sent missiles into Qatar.
Michael’s overall view was that we are closer to containment than escalation. The Houthi strike that killed their civilian cabinet was a significant symbol, but not strategically decisive. The regime regards them as dispensable. The Houthis, he reminded us, are not just pirates; they function as a state with at least 25 million people living under their control.
The greater danger lies with Iran. Its refusal to cooperate with IAEA inspections evokes the same unease that surrounded Iraq in the run-up to the 2003 war. Iran may be bluffing, or it may be advancing its nuclear programme. Either way, the risks are high.
On Gaza, Michael was stark: Israel will win militarily, but the campaign looks less about hostages than about Netanyahu’s political survival. A leaked IDF report concurs: Israel has made every conceivable error in prosecuting the war. In the West Bank, the situation is worse still, with growing international recognition of Palestinian statehood.
His conclusion echoed a widespread view in Israeli politics: the prolongation of this war is less about strategy than about Netanyahu avoiding his corruption trial.
The Authoritarian Drift
Finally, we turned to the broader theme of authoritarian consolidation. From Trump’s executive overreach, to Prabowo in Indonesia, to Xi in China, the question is whether we are living through an authoritarian wave.
Michael’s answer was nuanced. The data from think tanks and democracy indices show the trend clearly. But this isn’t just about Trump, it is a longer story. Authoritarian leadership is the historical norm; democracy is the exception. It flourishes only when carefully maintained. Since the end of the Cold War, complacency has allowed populism to grow and institutions to weaken.
Yet the US is still a democracy with strong guardrails. Having lived in Russia, I told Michael that even if everything Trump is pushing for goes through, America is nowhere near Russia in terms of autocracy. But the fact that investors and visitors are starting to perceive the US as drifting towards authoritarianism matters in itself. Visitor numbers are dipping, investors are diversifying into Europe and gold, and the euro has outperformed despite the EU’s structural weaknesses.
Why It Matters
What struck me in this conversation, as it often does in these Pro webinars, is how quickly the analysis moves from headlines to the deeper structures of international politics and markets. Tariffs are not just about steel or semiconductors; they’re about the fragility of an overheated economy. A photograph of Modi and Xi is not evidence of an alliance; it’s a snapshot of personal grievances that mask deeper incompatibilities. Europe’s weakness is not rhetorical; it’s institutional. The Middle East is not just another round of violence; it’s a set of overlapping theatres with risks that extend to the nuclear level. And authoritarianism is not just a word thrown around in op-eds; it’s a centuries-old rhythm that democracies must work to resist.
That is the value of Geopolitical Dispatch Pro. It’s not news — you can get that anywhere. It’s not predictions for prediction’s sake. It’s a disciplined attempt to sift what matters from what doesn’t, to connect events to structures, and to translate it into implications for business and finance.
Every month, subscribers join these conversations. Some listen in live, others read the transcripts or watch the recordings. But the essence is the same: a seat at the table as we test our judgments, challenge each other, and draw out the “so what” of geopolitics.
Do consider it.
Best wishes,
Damien Bruckard
Founder | Geopolitical Strategy