This article made me think. The hedgehog vs fox idea is a great way of describing how this actually feels in real life — you need a view of the big picture, but most of the time you’re just dealing with very specific, messy situations.
The bit about positioning vs predicting also rings true. Trying to “call” geopolitics feels like a losing game — being ready for different scenarios is probably more realistic. AI just adds massive uncertainty to everything.
This article made me think. The hedgehog vs fox idea is a great way of describing how this actually feels in real life — you need a view of the big picture, but most of the time you’re just dealing with very specific, messy situations.
The bit about positioning vs predicting also rings true. Trying to “call” geopolitics feels like a losing game — being ready for different scenarios is probably more realistic. AI just adds massive uncertainty to everything.
Agree David. AI just speeds up the mistakes. The alpha, if such a term can exist for geopolitics, is found in the slow, deliberative thinking.