Irregular: Ukraine – War or Peace?
A special briefing
Hello from Sydney,
This week’s Irregular turns to a development that could profoundly and quickly reshape the geopolitical landscape: the emerging momentum in diplomacy toward a possible end to the war in Ukraine.
Before I get to a few thoughts on that, a quick note for those following events closely.
This week, we will be hosting a special briefing for our GD Professional subscribers with Ambassador Peter Tesch, our Senior Advisor and one of the world’s foremost experts on Russia, international security, and European affairs. This will take place on Monday 1 December for the Americas and Europe (5pm EST / 11pm CET), and Tuesday 2 December for the Asia–Pacific (9am AEDT)
If you’re a GD Professional subscriber, you’ll have received the registration details separately.
If you’re not — and would like to attend — do consider upgrading so you can join us.
By way of background, Peter spent 35 years in Australia’s diplomatic and defence ministries, serving as Ambassador to Russia, Ambassador to Germany, Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Deputy Secretary of Defence, and Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations. His grasp of Russian strategic culture is extraordinary. I can attest to this personally: he was my boss in Moscow from 2016 to 2019, when we both served in the Australian embassy. Few people can read the Kremlin as well as Peter.
We will also hold our regular monthly private roundtable for GD Professional subscribers, where our Chief Strategist Michael Feller will cover the five major geopolitical developments of the month — including the Ukraine war — and look ahead to what matters most for business. That session is on Tuesday, 2 December (4pm EST / 10am CET / 8pm AEDT).
A potential inflection point
Without attempting to forecast the outcome, it’s worth setting out the dynamics that have now come into view.
After months of back-channel diplomacy, several peace-framework proposals have surfaced: one reflecting US–Ukrainian preferences, another pushed by key Europeans, and a set of Russian counter-positions delivered in unusually detailed comments from Vladimir Putin. Much of Moscow’s line is familiar, but one element has been sharply elevated: the idea that President Zelensky must step aside — or be removed — before “serious negotiations” can begin.
Meanwhile, Russia has increased military pressure with renewed strikes on Kyiv. Washington appears increasingly willing to press Kyiv toward an agreement that would have previously been off-limits. European governments, too, are moving – albeit with less fanfare – toward a posture of “managed settlement” rather than indefinite wartime support.
Ukraine itself is under enormous strain — militarily, economically, and politically. War-weariness is real. And for the first time since 2022, the internal incentives may be tilting, however slightly, toward negotiation rather than continued attrition.
What might be coming
None of this means a deal is imminent. Even if parties agree to “negotiate,” the details of any settlement — and its enforcement — could take months or longer. And despite the apparent momentum, the Kremlin’s intentions remain opaque, Kyiv’s options remain constrained, and Washington’s patience remains finite.
But it is potentially a very significant moment. What happens in the next few weeks will shape not only Ukraine’s political and economic trajectory but also Russia’s post-war positioning and internal dynamics, the investment and reconstruction landscape in Ukraine, European security arrangements for the next decade, and financial-market expectations around energy, commodities, and risk.
And, above all, whether diplomacy succeeds or fails will have profound humanitarian consequences for millions of Ukrainians whose futures hang on the outcome.
Next week’s briefings
We’ll explore all of this — and more — with Ambassador Tesch in a one-hour session for GD Professional subscribers. The briefing will be interactive, with 30 minutes of off-the-record discussion in true Chatham House style. And a recording and transcript will be provided, so even if you can’t attend live, you won’t miss it.
If you’ve been considering joining GD Professional — which gives you access to these monthly private roundtables and every edition of Geopolitical Dispatch, including our fully paywalled Saturday deep-dive Week Signals — this is a particularly good moment to do so.
Wishing everyone a good weekend,
Damien
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