Is Moldova Europe’s next flashpoint?

Seeing the forest for the trees.

The Boundary between Russia & Turkey on the Bessarabian Frontier, Edward Hertslet, 1875, Foreign Office, Whitehall.

Welcome to this week’s Not in Dispatches, where we take a closer look at Moldova, a small and often overlooked country that is increasing in strategic importance.

Nestled between Ukraine and Romania, Moldova is in a precarious position.

In mid-February, President Maia Sandu accused Russia of plotting a coup to violently overthrow her government. Russian military bombardment has resumed in Odesa, the Ukrainian city on the Black Sea just 50 kilometres from the Moldovan border. And the leaders of Moldova’s breakaway pro-Russian region of Transnistria in the east, as well as Moldova’s autonomous territory of Gagauzia in the south, have recently called for Moscow’s protection.

Over the course of the war in Ukraine, Russian missiles have crossed Moldovan airspace. NATO, sufficiently concerned about the perceived threat from Russia, has discussed supplying Moldova with weapons, while in January 2023, Moldovan Defence Minister Anatolie Nosatii said that Moldova had requested air defence systems from Western partners.

For the first time, a serious question has arisen about whether the war could spill over to small, landlocked, and largely defenceless Moldova.

Age of Empires

Worry about invasion has probably been the most consistent thread in Moldova’s history. Positioned between Asia and Europe, Moldova’s strategic geography has long made it a strategic prize for empires and states seeking dominance over the Eurasian continent. Geographically defenseless, and at the mouth of the Danube, it has also been a crossing point between the Balkans, Central Europe, the Black Sea, and the Eurasian steppe.

The region now known as Moldova first came under Roman control around the first century AD, after which it was intermittently controlled by either the Romans or the Byzantines until around 700 AD. After the decline of the Roman Empire, it was invaded by the Goths, Huns, and Avers. The Mongols dominated the region in the 12th and 13th centuries. From the 16th to the 19th century, it became a vassal of the Ottoman Empire.

Over the past two centuries, however, it has been Russia that has dominated Moldova more than any other great power.

The Russian Empire ruled Moldova under the Bessarabia Governorate for forty-four years after the Russo-Turkish War (1806-1812) until the end of the Crimean War (1856). It came back under Russian control in 1878 but then, after the collapse of the Russian empire, the territory briefly joined with Romania. During the Second World War, the Red Army again brought the territory under its control. The Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic was officially part of the Soviet Union for the duration of the Cold War.

Modern Times

Moldova gained independence in 1991.

Like many post-Soviet states, its newfound independence was accompanied by a heady transition to free market capitalism and democracy. Yet without the institutions, culture, or historical experience of self-governance, much of Moldova’s most recent history has been characterised by poverty, corruption, and oligarchic state capture.

Economically, Moldova has long been one of Europe’s poorest countries.

It is heavily reliant on agriculture, which is hampered by outdated practices, limited access to modern technology, and challenges in accessing capital. It has a very limited industrial base, with a large portion of income coming from remittances — not least because a significant portion of its population has emigrated to the European Union in search of greater economic opportunities.

Politically, the main divide in Moldovan society has been between pro-Russian and pro-Western players.

The population roughly splits between those culturally closer to Russia and those who prefer the West. This can be seen in debates over language (those favouring the West posit the national language as a dialect of Latin-derived Romanian), religion (with rival branches of the local Orthodox Church subordinating to the patriarchs of Moscow or Bucharest respectively), and, like Ukraine, whether Christmas is celebrated on 25 December or 7 January (both dates are public holidays for now). Currently, it is the pro-Romanian stance of the current Moldovan President that prevails. However, for much of Moldova’s modern history, irrespective of the views of the people, pro-Russian politicians have had the upper hand, with powerful oligarchs (notably Vladimir Plahotniuc and Ilan Shor) supported by the Kremlin. 

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Heading West

Like Ukraine and other post-Soviet states, over the past decade, Moldova has slowly drifted towards the West.

While Moldovans have migrated en masse to both Russia and Europe, Europe has exerted a greater pull. Moldovans increasingly look to the West for political, cultural, and economic inspiration. And with Putin’s Russia showing increasing imperial tendencies, many have begun to put store in European institutions.

In 2020, in a decisive break from Moldova’s post-Soviet political legacy, Moldovans elected Maia Sandu, a Harvard-educated economist, on a platform to fight corruption, strengthen democratic institutions and align more closely with European Union standards and expectations.

Unlike previous governments, which have ranged from trying to delicately balance relationships with Russia and Europe to being mere puppets of the Kremlin, Sandu’s administration has focused on reforming the judiciary, securing economic stability, and enhancing Moldova’s strategic partnerships with Western allies. This has been welcomed in Europe.

Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine has firmed Moldova’s stance. Sandu’s Moldova has decided its security is best sought in Europe, rather than merely from Russia.

The View from the Kremlin

While Moldova clearly poses no threat to Moscow — it is small (population: ~2.6 million) and poor in resources (with the exception of its high-quality wine) – the Kremlin nevertheless has significant strategic interests in Moldova.

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and especially under Vladimir Putin, Russia has sought to maintain a sphere of influence over former Soviet states to ensure a buffer zone between Russia and NATO-aligned countries.

Moldova, in this sense, is no exception. Any potential expansion of NATO to Moldova, the establishment of Western military infrastructure inside its territory, or the supply of Western weapons to its defence forces, is perceived as a direct challenge to Russian security.

While such interests have existed for decades, they have been heightened by the war in Ukraine and Moldova’s westward turn. Moldova has long been subject to unwelcome Russian “influence” but for the first time since independence, the Moldovan establishment has turned its mind towards the possibility of a direct Russian threat.

Russia has activated pro-Russian politicians in the breakaway region of Transnistria, home of the longest “frozen conflict” in the post-Soviet space, and where Russia maintains a military presence. It has also put out feelers to Gagauzia, with Vladimir Putin recently meeting the territory’s governor, a protégé of oligarch Ilan Shor.

Russian spies have allegedly plotted a coup against Sandu’s government. And it has continued its usual disinformation and propaganda campaigns in efforts to delegitimise and destabilise the pro-European Chisinau elite.

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Flashpoints

Moldova’s increasing defence cooperation with the West is alarming to Russia. While not seeking NATO membership, Moldova has participated in NATO meetings and received affirmation of support from the alliance. Sandu has even raised the question of whether Moldova should abandon its constitutionally enshrined policy of neutrality, owing to the threat from Russia.

Moldova is concerned that Russia will extend its war in Ukraine to Moldova. While possible, this remains unlikely. First, Russia is already heavily extended in Ukraine. Second, Putin does not attach the same “special” historical status to Moldova as Ukraine, as it is not contiguous with Russia (though it is contiguous with the mini-Russia of Transnistria). Third, any physical military incursion into Moldova could promote an unpredictable and forceful response from the West, particularly France, with which it has recently signed a military pact.

That said, Russia could still calculate that military intervention may be the only way to prevent Moldova from fully drifting into the West’s orbit, becoming a site for Western weapons, and damaging its war efforts in Ukraine – including any potential invasion of the traditionally Russian city of Odesa. On this potential view of the Kremlin, it would be better to annex Moldova before its ineluctable Western drift leads it to become the site of Western weapons that could be used against it in Ukraine or even on Russian territory.

Amid rumours of the deployment of French troops to southern Ukraine, via Moldova, and the construction of a major NATO base in next door Romania, the once sleepy and overlooked former Soviet republic is increasingly in the news. On balance, we don’t see a crisis as imminent, but in Moldova’s long history of invasion and imperial rivalry, nothing should be ruled out.

As the old Moldovan saying goes: “No forest without dead trees, no life without troubles.”