Ishmael’s accord

Israel, Palestine, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, North Korea, Brazil, and Argentina.

Hagar in the Wilderness, Jean-Baptiste Camille Corot, 1835, oil on canvas, Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Gaza is leaving Trump and Netanyahu isolated.

• JAPAN. RUSSIA. An earthquake causes panic in a febrile age.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow counters Washington with another deadline.

• NORTH KOREA. Pyongyang dangles a carrot that looks like a stick.

• BRAZIL. ARGENTINA. A reckoning for a regional trade bloc.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Reverse-Abraham

Gaza is leaving Trump and Netanyahu isolated.

Britain said it would recognise Palestine in September unless a ceasefire was declared. Malta said it would recognise Palestine in September at the 80^th UN General Assembly. The Netherlands imposed travel bans on two Israeli ministers.

INTELLIGENCE. Israel won't adjust its war plans based on Britain's declaration, so recognition will almost certainly happen. By linking a policy long sought by his base to the current Gaza crisis, Keir Starmer will judge he can minimise US censure. Canada and Australia, despite trade and AUKUS worries, may then follow suit. And after France and Malta's declarations, it's likely the rest of the EU, being 14 of 44 states that don’t yet recognise Palestine, will join too.

FOR BUSINESS. By the end of the year, the countries withholding recognition of Palestine could be of a similar number to those withholding recognition of the People's Republic of China. In the short term, this may mean little militarily or economically to Israel, but it could ultimately institutionalise its isolation and complicate an expansion of the Abraham Accords, which, if not demanding a two-state solution, would at least require tangible steps toward one.

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JAPAN. RUSSIA. Shaken

An earthquake causes panic in a febrile age.

An 8.8-magnitude quake off the coast of Kamchatka early Wednesday led to tsunami warnings across Japan and much of the Pacific. Decommissioning workers at the Fukushima nuclear power plant were among those ordered to evacuate.

INTELLIGENCE. The warning came hours after Tokyo Electric said the full removal of