Islamabad to worse
Iran, Israel, Hungary, China, and the Indian Ocean.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Tehran plays a rook to checkmate a president.
ISRAEL. Netanyahu tries the ultimate get-out-of-jail card.
HUNGARY. Magyar overcomes MAGA, and Moscow.
CHINA. Beijing wins friends and influences people.
INDIAN OCEAN. Britain relives a second Suez crisis.
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IRAN. Vance warning
Tehran plays a rook to checkmate a president.
Talks between JD Vance and senior Iranian officials in Pakistan failed to yield an agreement. Donald Trump announced a blockade on Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz and “every vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran”.
INTELLIGENCE. For Iran, after 47 years, to meet JD Vance for 20 straight hours signals it's willing to do business, with him. For Trump to react as he did suggests this play was calculated. Vance looks serious. Trump looks unhinged. And as oil heads up again (7% in Asian trade), more Americans will be wondering who exactly is the obstacle to peace and low inflation. Washington has failed at regime change in Tehran, but Tehran looks set to achieve it in Washington.
FOR BUSINESS. Like ending Iran’s civilisation, Trump’s threat to interdict every ship that’s paid Iranian tolls looks unrealistic. Even if it were possible, it would require most of the navy and invite a showdown with China. Assembling an international coalition could help, but the UK has already said no, and few others will be willing. A UN resolution on Hormuz has been blocked. NATO is in crisis. Russia has recently proven with Cuba that blockades can be ignored.
ISRAEL. The final trump
Netanyahu tries the ultimate get-out-of-jail card.
IDF officials told local media it would renew attacks on Iran and Lebanon after a brief attenuation before Saturday’s talks in Pakistan. Shin Bet reportedly told the courts that Benjamin Netanyahu couldn’t testify on personal security grounds.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu has already requested his criminal trial be postponed by