Israel, Iran: Fire on the fuel
Also: the US, the Indian Ocean, Ukraine, Russia, and the Arctic.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. IRAN. Biden makes a suggestion nobody likes.
UNITED STATES. A port disaster is averted, but industrial action is vindicated.
THE INDIAN OCEAN. Britain and the US take a big risk with Mauritius.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv claims to have tested a major red line.
THE ARCTIC. China sets new norms at America’s back door.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Fire on the fuel
Biden makes a suggestion nobody likes.
The US and Israel were "discussing" an attack on Iran's oil facilities, Joe Biden said Thursday, sending crude up 5%. Several Gulf states had assured Iran of their "neutrality", Reuters said. The Houthis told shippers to “prepare for attack”.
INTELLIGENCE. Biden’s gaffes can be funny, but they still have the power to rattle markets. Iran doesn’t seem to have taken the remarks seriously, though there are reports of tankers evacuating its Khark Island terminal. Loose lips can sometimes sink ships and in the fog of war the risks of misunderstanding and misjudgement are real. As fighting continues in Lebanon, and Israel mulls how to respond to Iran’s attacks, any war of words will grow more dangerous.
FOR BUSINESS. The spike in prices overshadowed Libya’s return to production, after its rival governments agreed on a new central bank chief (to divide the spoils). It also overshadowed an OPEC poll showing production levels far below capacity in September – a generally bearish indicator amid speculation of tight inventories. Still, markets are right (if late) to price the risks of an Iran oil crisis, particularly as Tehran retains the ability block the Strait of Hormuz.
UNITED STATES. Next strike you’re out
A port disaster is averted, but industrial action is vindicated.
Dockworker unions suspended their strike Thursday, allowing 54 queued ships to unload, after a 62% six-year pay rise was agreed. The top firefighters' union declined to endorse Harris or Trump, following a similar move by the Teamsters.
INTELLIGENCE. The Democrats can usually count on organised labour to lend support around election time. But