Israel, Iran: Let’s get this over with

Also: the US, Ukraine, Russia, Overseas France, and Kenya.

Two Mountain Rams from Manāfi˓-i ḥayavān (The Benefits of Animals), unknown, c1299, Persian miniature, the Morgan Library and Museum, New York.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Tehran says its retaliation is done, but it may just be the start.

• UNITED STATES. The running mate race becomes competitive.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow captures the stronghold of Vuhledar.

• OVERSEAS FRANCE. Barnier delays a reckoning in New Caledonia and beyond.

• KENYA. An unpopular president seeks his deputy’s impeachment.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. IRAN. Let’s get this over with

Tehran says its retaliation is done, but it may just be the start.

Iran launched around 200 missiles, some claimed to be hypersonic, on Israel Tuesday. Tehran said its actions were "concluded". Benjamin Netanyahu said they were a "big mistake". Washington said they were "defeated and ineffective".

INTELLIGENCE. The strikes, long expected and, like in April, apparently warned of in advance (Russia was advised; Israel removed its F-35s from their bases before the missiles landed) have nonetheless raised the chances of further escalation, particularly alongside a mass shooting in Jaffa, which will seem by many to have been coordinated. Unlike in April, the US has hardened its rhetoric, with the White House saying it would back "severe consequences" for Iran.

FOR BUSINESS. Washington is no longer calling for de-escalation. Coming so close to the election, and in the wake of allegations of an Iran-backed plot against Donald Trump, tub-thumping is to be expected. But it’s not clear whom escalation will serve. Oil prices have spiked. Israeli troops are already engaged in fierce fighting in Lebanon. Destroying Iran’s nuclear program (or changing its regime) will be much harder than combatting Hezbollah or Hamas.

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UNITED STATES. Vice versus

The running mate race becomes competitive.

JD Vance put Tim Walz on the back foot in the vice-presidential debate, pundits agreed Tuesday. Early voting in North Carolina, where the Republican gubernatorial candidate has been criticised, was put in doubt after Hurricane Helene.

INTELLIGENCE. The debate showed Vance to be more