Israel, Iran: Making haste slowly

Also: Afghanistan, Russia, China, the EU, and Paraguay.

Tortoise, hares and snakes, unknown artist, Iran, c19th century, earthenware tile, Louvre Museum, Paris.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Tehran finds more reasons to delay its response.

• AFGHANISTAN. Kabul rebuilds its diplomatic relations.

• RUSSIA. CHINA. Eurasia’s giants deepen their ties, but not without risk.

• EUROPE. CHINA. An investigation opens into EU dairy imports.

• PARAGUAY. CHINA. Asunción spies a backdoor to Beijing.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. IRAN. Making haste slowly

Tehran finds more reasons to delay its response.

Joe Biden stressed the need for Benjamin Netanyahu to conclude a ceasefire, the White House said Wednesday. A Revolutionary Guards spokesman said Iran would not take "hasty" action against Israel despite the Gaza war continuing.

INTELLIGENCE. Tehran (and Hezbollah) initially said it would stand down if a deal with Hamas was struck. But with last-ditch peace efforts seemingly exhausted, Iran is finding other excuses. One is the power of anticipation, which considering the costs of US deterrence (and the unwillingness of some airlines to return to Israel), has a certain logic. Another is a more intriguing concept, outlined in Iranian media, that Europe has proposed an ‘Abraham Accords 2.0’.

FOR BUSINESS. The idea of a new accord (after the 2020 treaty between Israel and four Arab states) was outlined in the Tehran Times, saying France, Germany and Britain would recognise Palestine if Iran recognised Israel and ended support for Hamas and Hezbollah. The proposal, which has not been reported elsewhere, would be extraordinary if true (particularly as it’s heavily weighted in Israel’s favour). But if not, it’s still good pretext for Iranian procrastination.

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AFGHANISTAN. Talibanwagoning

Kabul rebuilds its diplomatic relations.

The UAE Wednesday accepted the credentials of Afghanistan's envoy, the first state to do so since China in December. Uzbekistan's prime minister Saturday became Afghanistan’s most senior visitor since 2021, signing $2.5 billion in deals.

INTELLIGENCE. As the Taliban become less isolated, they can further thumb their noses at neighbouring Pakistan, where