Israel, Iran: Redrawing a line

Also: Georgia, Japan, Taiwan, China, and Bolivia.

Two cocks, follower of Mishkín-Qalam, c1877, Persian calligraphy on card, private collection.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Both sides seem unwilling to take direct conflict further.

• GEORGIA. A disputed election becomes a battle of Ivanishvili vs Zurabishvili.

• JAPAN. A vote against his party may end up serving the prime minister well.

• TAIWAN. CHINA. Beijing vows countermeasures for a new weapons sale.

• BOLIVIA. Morales blames the president for an attempted assassination.

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ISRAEL. IRAN. Redrawing a line

Both sides seem unwilling to take direct conflict further.

Israel said it met "all its objectives" in "precise" strikes on Iran early Saturday. Iran's supreme leader said the attacks should neither be "exaggerated” nor “downplayed". Iran's president said Sunday Tehran would respond "appropriately".

INTELLIGENCE. Israel claims to have crippled the Islamic Republic’s missile production capabilities and damaged its Russian-supplied air defence network. If true, Iran will be deterred from responding. If not, Iran is signalling it doesn’t want escalation anyway. For as long as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Masoud Pezeshkian are in charge that's likely the case. And most in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would prefer it stay a proxy conflict as well.

FOR BUSINESS. The risk of escalation lies in any succession battle when Khamenei, 85 and unwell, eventually dies. Hardliners could be incentivised to ratchet tensions with Israel to build or consolidate support. The success of Israel’s strikes, and Iran’s relatively meek response, could be used to attack moderates like Pezeshkian. But most Iranians seem to not want war. And the loss of Hamas and Hezbollah, while embarrassing, isn’t existential to IRGC influence.

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GEORGIA. Ishvilified

A disputed election becomes a battle of Ivanishvili vs Zurabishvili.

President Salome Zurabishvili said Georgia had been victim of a "Russian special operation" and called for protests to begin Monday night. Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili's nationalist Georgian Dream party won a majority of seats Saturday.

INTELLIGENCE. With 89 of 150 seats in parliament, Georgian Dream is back near its 2020 total, allowing it to continue overriding the president's veto. Laws against