Israel, Iran: Revenge vs restraint

Also: Ukraine, Russia, China, Somalia, and the social networks.

La Paix par la Justice, Paul-Albert Besnard, 1926, oil on canvas, International Court of Justice, Th Hague.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. IRAN. The coming days could show who’s bluffing.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ gets caught in the election cycle.

• CHINA. Beijing stimulates but doesn’t change course.

• SOMALIA. Egypt and Ethiopia step closer to conflict.

• SOCIAL MEDIA. Technology platforms quietly yield to the state.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. IRAN. Revenge vs restraint

The coming days could show who’s bluffing.

Lebanon said almost 500 had been killed in Israeli airstrikes on Monday. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for rocket fire across northern Israel overnight. The US urged an offramp. Iran's president told reporters he didn't want a war.

INTELLIGENCE. Iran and Hezbollah have vowed revenge for the mounting attacks but have so far been largely symbolic in their response. Whether this is due to caution, weakness or strategy is anyone’s guess. Israel has certainly degraded Hezbollah, but the militia has reserves in Syria, and Iran has an arsenal that’s barely been used (other than in Ukraine and Yemen). Israel has seemingly called its enemy’s bluff, but the timeline is early, and the stakes are high.

FOR BUSINESS. There’s every chance the restraint is a product of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s visit to the UN in New York. Yet the Revolutionary Guards, who hold the real power in Tehran, will have been humiliated by Israel’s attacks and an escalatory response, with obvious market ramifications, cannot be ruled out. The US has sent more troops to the region as a message of deterrence but it’s Benjamin Netanyahu who is so far not being dissuaded.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Plan to fail

Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’ gets caught in the election cycle.

Volodymyr Zelensky said the US could help Ukraine end the war with Russia in a television interview Monday. Zelensky is due to present a "victory plan" to Joe Biden Thursday. Donald Trump said Zelensky wanted the Democrats to win.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump is no doubt correct – Zelensky has played politics in his visit to Biden’s hometown and comments about Trump’s running mate being “radical” – and Kyiv